Yesterday's Tornado Outbreak Could have Been Much Worse...

It's always important to do some "Monday morning quarter backing" after a major weather event.  There already is talk that climate change is to blame.  Really?  Let's investigate like Lee Zurik.  In the past 3-5 years we have seen more frequent & severe hurricanes and tornadoes in Louisiana.  True, but CLIMATOLOGY involves weather over decades, not years.   

The top graphic is from The Weather Channel showing how active the past two DAYS have been.  The bottom is from today's Advocate with the local tornado tracks.  What is more incredible is the West Bank tornado that ended up hitting the same street in Arabi that was hit 9 months ago.

It would get some folks thinking that "tornado alley" is shifting southward.  However, look at this graphic from the SPC website talking about tornado climatology.

The area highlighted is right where tornadoes are supposed to hit in December..  SPC should update this map since it does not include the past 10 years.  What do I think is going on?  We now have way better public awareness since the arrival of cell phones & social media.  Watching TV you are overwhelmed by all the newer graphics that I didn't have during my broadcast career.

These upgrades in radar technology are awesome.  We have the "Tornado Detection" ( Surface Velocity), Debris Detection & Rotation (Shear) Detection that allows the weathercaster to pin point the likelihood of a tornado like never before.  Add in the cell phone instant warning alerts and the public is way more involved in seeking protection.  I believe the jump in technology makes it seem like we're seeing more frequent storms.   The data regarding tornadoes does NOT show an increase over 30-50 years.  In fact, with the current warming CYCLE, the number of severe (EF 3+) tornadoes is LESS than back in the 50s, 60s & 70s.  That's probably do to less temperature contrasts.  So remember, 3-5 years is way too soon to say we have a pattern change.  Now back to weather...

Speaking of a pattern change, on his noon program, Zack Fradella showed us a shifting upper pattern that (IF true) will bring us a hard freeze threat down to the Gulf Coast.  The super cold (40-50 below) over Siberia will plunges over the North Pole and into the lower 48 just in time for Santa & Christmas.  It could also mean a snowstorm for folks trying to travel ahead of the holidays.  We'll need to focus on this during the next 10-14 days.

Right now, there is a minor dip in the Jet Stream over the Great Lakes, but the real cold air is bottled up in northern Canada.

After yesterday's storms, clear skies returned along with cooler and drier air.  We will stay below normal perhaps for the rest of this year after starting the first 2 weeks way above normal.

The bottom graphic is the surface dew points which have dropped from 70+ down into the 30s (very dry)  Friday will be another bright sunny day before clouds & some showers come back on Saturday.

As you can see, the next 7 days will be chilly.  However, if models are correct, it will be even colder for Christmas week.  Are any of you starting to dream yet? (hint white!)  Stay tuned!