Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Western Trough Results in Southeast Ridge & Opposite Extremes

While all of the Southeast (except for a brief December cold spell) enjoys a Spring preview, no so for the western states.   Sure we have seen several brief cooldowns in January & February, but over all we have been above normal/average.  Why?   There has been a persistent upper trough over the West coast & Rockies with the absence of the dip in the Polar Vortex over the eastern states.  The result, a frigid West & northern states.





Look at how cold California & the desert SW is.  Blizzard warnings are up for the mountains of southern California!  Does the pattern show any signs of changing?



Not in the short term as we're stuck with the late Winter heat ridge.  Here's the computer guidance into March.






The top graphic is from this morning showing the Polar Vortex up in Canada with the next valid for Saturday morning.   The California system begins to head eastward, but the Polar Vortex stays out.  The next time is valid for Monday morning indicating a strong disturbance crossing the Plains with severe weather potential.  Now, look at the bottom valid for NEXT weekend.  The western trough has become centered over the heart of the nation and this will result in a much colder pattern spreading south & eastward.   March is likely to be colder than February so don't pack away your Winter weather gear just yet. Here's the view from my son's (Rob) house in Longmont.





While it's in the 60s in the warm air sector, not too far away it's below zero.  Locally, we've been up to at least 81, but the big story has been the winds.





As the 1st upper disturbance races to the Great Lakes, we'll see much less wind on Thursday before the next upper system approaches early Saturday.  A few showers are along a weak frontal boundary to our west, but that boundary will wash out as the upper energy leaves it behind.



We have seen some cool dips, but they don't last very long.  In the short term, that will not change.  Looking ahead into March, I see a Lion roaring !  Stay tuned!








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