Bob Breck's Blog: Where Has Winter Gone? Road To Mardi Gras Staying Dry...

Since there has been no change to the thinking that the days leading up to Mardi Gras will be dry. Let me have some fun explaining why the Rockies & West coast have been below normal/average this Winter while the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. has been above normal with limited snowfall and very little ice cover for the Great Lakes. It's all about the placement of the upper trough.

That trough has stayed over the West coast, with one exception back in December when the "Polar Vortex" dipped over the Great Lakes. That caused us 4 nights of below freezing weather, but that's been it. It's not that the cold isn't there. Eastern Canada is 35-40+ below zero. But without the eastern trough, most of the lower 48 has had a mild Winter. Just look at the freeze line this afternoon.

It's above freezing in Minneapolis, Green Bay, Detroit & Buffalo. So what about that Polar Vortex during the next 10 days?

The top graphic is from this morning with the middle valid for Fat Tuesday & the bottom valid for next Saturday. The vortex stays north with the Rockies trough reforming. That means it'll continue to be mild to warm over most of the Southeast.

There is a weak upper feature causing some clouds & light rain to our north, but that will pull away on Sunday.

I love to point out features on satellite loops. This afternoon's visible view has the easterly low level flow (yellow arrows) with the low level moisture (green arrow) over the western Gulf. On top of that, we have the sub-tropical jet stream (orange arrow) coming in from the SW. Neat stuff. Note winds have decreased so tonight will be another chilly night. I'm leaving my plants out but will look at the temps at 10 PM to decide if I need to bring them in.