Heavy Rain Threat Increasing For Friday Into Saturday

Some of our worst floods (100 year!) happened in April & May when a cold front stalled over us for several days.  A band of heavy T-Storms kept firing off along the same track (Training) dumping 10-20+ inches of rain in less than 2 days.  Obviously, widespread flooding shut down the city with many homes affected by water.  I'm not saying that will happen tomorrow, but when NWS starts to mention training in their discussions and they list the rain potential at 5"+, I begin to pay attention, and so should you.  Why might this happen?  Let me show you.

Even though the surface front is getting close, the upper SW flow is now parallel to the front and that means VERY SLOW movement to the east.  In addition, I see 2 upper disturbances (one over Texas, another back by Arizona) that will be the triggers for strong storms.  Right now, there is very different weather either side of the front.

Sweaters & jackets are needed in Texas & north Louisiana.  The hard question to answer for tomorrow is, where will the boundary stall?  Or will it keep moving, but so slowly that rain totals start to cause issues?  Here is what NWS is thinking.

Just based on what I see on radar, we all should be paying attention to the weather tomorrow.  Nicondra showed us the timing on her 4 PM program.

I wouldn't bet the house on the model, but I believe rain coverage for the next 2 days will be 100%.  Remember, that doesn't mean it will be raining 100% of the time.  There will be some breaks.

So to recap, tonight will be mostly dry unless you live west and north of Lake P.  

The cooling for the next few days will come from clouds and rainfall.  Make sure your FOX 8 Weather App is updated with the settings set to alert you to any warnings.  We may have to deal with this frontal boundary into next week.  Stay tuned!