Yet Another Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Tuesday-Wednesday

On this 49th anniversary of the "Super Outbreak" of April 3-4, 1974, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already indicated tomorrow may see many tornadoes, some EF3-5s.  April & May are the peak months for tornado occurrence. so it should come as no surprise that surging Spring warmth colliding with retreating Winter cold air triggers severe storms.   Let me explain why tomorrow's troubles will stay to our north.  I've drawn in the southern upper ridge (orange) with an upper low over Nevada.

The next two graphics are the computer model forecast that takes that low into South Dakota by late Tuesday.  Since the main energy will be far to our north, SPC highlights 2 areas of high (level 4) risk.  Since the upper flow never digs over the Southeast, our problems will come as the cold front is likely to stall near us creating conditions that bring us a heavy rain threat.

Nicondra captured the slowing front on Thursday morning and that aligns with the WPC's rain potential for the next 7 days. IF you believe the model, the upper Texas coast could see 5-10"+.  It all depends where the front stalls regarding our heavy rain threat.  Could be a soggy Easter weekend here?

That could all change IF the front stalls to our north.  Too early to tell. The bottom two graphics have the surge of warm air up to Chicago with 60+ dew points (deep low level moisture) into Arkansas & Tennessee.

In the short term, we stay in the warm air sector with near record warmth possible tomorrow & Wednesday.

Today might have tied the record of 86.  Tomorrow will be in that neighborhood.  Finally,

I was driving on my way downtown for the National Hurricane Conference when I encountered this tragic scene.  The debris field was extreme telling me it involved high speeds.  If you zoom into the bottom view, I don't see how anyone could survive that impact.  Should remind us all that we don't know when our time is up.  Tomorrow is promised to no one.  Be cautious & slow down!  This Holy Week, keep these two drivers in your prayers.   Stay tuned!