Could Arlene Form In Eastern Gulf?

As we get deeper into late May & early June, we focus more on the Tropics and less on fronts coming down from the north.  The past week has seen a near Tropical Storm (some say it should have been named) batter the Carolinas with the potential for another system late this week.  Since we remain under the influence of a broad East Coast upper trough, any formation will be slow to occur.  However, NHC is watching an area from the eastern Gulf into the Atlantic.

As Hannah pointed out, the eastern Gulf is the typical location for early season development.

The water vapor loop clearly shows this is an upper air feature and not down at the surface just yet.  Models keep any movement very slow since the low is under an upper high to the north.  IF anything develops, we'll stay on the west (dry) side through this weekend.

In the short term, several heavy slow moving storms fired off this PM.  Some spots on the West bank received 1-2"+ while most of us stayed dry.

I don't see any major changes coming that would increase our rain chances so gardeners will need to keep watering.  Stay tuned!