Focus Shifts To Eastern Gulf, Will Arlene Form?

Tomorrow kicks off the 2023 hurricane season and i'd like to begin with 2 phrases that i will use often during the next 4-5 months.  Remember "Upper Wind Shear" and "Hostile Environment" as those 2 ingredients will limit any tropical development.   Let's begin with the Wind Shear.

On the visible (daylight) view, I find 2 surface low level swirls, one off the Carolina coast 7 the other over the Eastern Gulf.  I've drawn in the upper trough that is producing very strong winds that are preventing T-Storms from developing around the surface center.  In addition, the upper trough is driving down drier air on the western side.

Those red/orange colors are the drier air that is creating a "Hostile Environment" RIGHT NOW.  NHC believes that should continue, but because the visible loop indicates some better organization, they have designated the area over the Eastern Gulf as Invest 91L with a Recon Plane scheduled for Thursday PM, if necessary.

Right now, there are no storms forming around the center.  I've drawn in yellow what I believe might happen with the current center.  It may drift back towards/closer to us tomorrow before turning back to the south and then into Florida.  We could see some increase in showers on Thursday before we dry out again for Friday & Saturday.

This currently is and should continue to be a very lopsided system with us staying on the Drier side.  Florida will be on the wet side.

Showers have again been below normal/average today as our highs flirt with 90.

Rain chances go up a little for Thursday before going down again for this weekend, especially if something does form over the eastern Gulf.  So the question is, will Arlene be named?  Or will this system be like the Memorial Weekend system off the Carolinas last week?  Regardless, it won't give us any impacts aside from some higher tides & coastal wind gusts.  

 A reminder, tomorrow night is the annual FOX 8 Hurricane special.  I suggest you watch it.  Stay tuned!