2 Hurricanes In The EPAC While Heat Dome Finally Breaking Down.

As we finish June with zero Tropical threats to the north Gulf coast, (3 named storms), computer models indicate nothing should develop for at least the next 7-10 days.  In fact, the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) of African dust has stabilized the Tropical Atlantic where Bret & Cindy Developed.  I'd love for that to continue into August when, hopefully the El Nino wind shear increases to limit storm development.

There is an ill define swirl of clouds near Bermuda that NHC gives a 10% chance for development.  Whatever, it's no threat to the U.S.  The Eastern Pacific is a different story.

The cloud cluster on the left is Cat. 2 Hurricane Adrian while the one on the right is Cat. 1 Hurricane Beatriz.  Adrian is heading out into the Pacific, but Beatriz is hugging the coast.  The NHC forecast track takes her well west of Puerto Vallarta, but she could take a swipe at Cabo San Lucas.  As the system heads over cooler waters, she will weaken.  The other news is an end to our heat wave is coming.

The center of the upper dome is now just to our east and the dome is expected to weaken as an upper trough dives southeastward out of the Rockies.  Here's what that looks like for this weekend.

The top graphic is from this morning with the middle valid for Saturday morning and the bottom view valid for Sunday morning.  You can clearly see the dome being flattened and pushed to our south.  That should result in some daily storms to bubble up bringing us cooling relief.

I'm more bullish on storms developing over the weekend, especially by Sunday PM.  Look at the radars to our north.

Not sure if we hit 100 at MSY, but we're close.  The past several days have seen brisk west winds that prevented the Lake breeze to develop.   Not so today.

Check with Bruce at 5 PM to see if we made back to back 100+ days in a row.

One reason I think we'll start seeing T-Storms firing off once the upper high weakens is the high (70+) dew points soaring to Kansas City to St, Louis to Louisville.  Intense daytime heating coupled with juicy/moist low level air equals T-Storms firing off.  I say, bring it on Mother Nature!  Bud a Bam! Enjoy your holiday weekend, but pay attention to the heat and any intense storms that develop. Stay tuned!

Yo Adrian, You're The Season's First Hurricane...In The Pacific.

I promised I wouldn't bore you whining daily about how hot it is.  Seems all the local stations do a good job of that!  I'm here primarily as your hurricane consultant and it appears we will easily get through the first month without a threat to our Gulf Coast.  As mentioned yesterday, Tropical Storm Adrian formed in the eastern Pacific & today he's been upgraded to their first Hurricane of this season.  Right behind him is anther strong disturbance that is expected to be named Beatrice tomorrow.

Neither system appears well organized on the IR (color) loop, but the second system (Beatrice) is expected to move much closer to land than Adrian.  But the Pacific is not our concern  In the Atlantic, the Saharan Dust has spread off of Africa.

The dust is shutting down any development over the MDR for the next several weeks, which is typical. So June might have started active (3 named storms), but the action has now shifted over to the EPAC.

Cindy has been gone for days, but there remains a small swirl (yellow arrow) that NHC gives a low chance for development well off the east coast.  Our focus should be on the extreme heat for the next 2-3 days.

The core of the heat dome will move right across Louisiana/Mississippi tomorrow & Friday with record breaking highs flirting with 100.  Coupled with dew points 75-80, this is dangerous heat and you should use common sense when being outside. (I'm golfing Thursday AM)  This is summer in the South & we don't stop living and stay inside.  Just stay hydrated and pay attention to your body signs.  Several cities did reach 100 today.

So what I would like our local weathercasters to tell us is this.  Show me when we can expect some relief from our usual daily summer showers.   As the next graphics indicate, the center of the upper high drifts right over us resulting in near zero rain chances Thursday & Friday.  But looks what happens for this weekend.

By Saturday, an upper tough approaches that starts to flatten the upper high with the trough totally pushing the high away by Monday.  That will bring back the daytime heating storms making next week less hot.

But before then, we have 2-3 days with record breaking heat to endure.  Today's high of 98 at MSY broke the old record of 97.

It's a rare Summer day when when have no rain in LA/MS/AL into the Florida beaches.

No rain means extreme heat.  However, NOLA's Mayor called "This heat unprecedented" in today's paper.  Had she watched Bruce Katz yesterday, she would have known that to be false/wrong.  Bruce pointed out only twice (1980, 2010) have we had 2 days back to back with temps hitting 100 or higher.

A Google search reveals unprecedented means "never done or known before".  Well, we haven't been hotter than 98 yet.   So we have been this hot before.  Finally,

The 2023 Storm Guide is out at many vendors.  You can view a digital copy at the link below.

https://issuu.com/in_magazine/docs/storm_guide_2023-fullbook

For now, we have nothing to follow in the Tropics, so let's focus how keeping safe during this current heat wave.  Stay tuned!