Even though we have several days to prepare for the coming cold, I begin there since once here, the cold will linger for several days with a hard freeze threat for both sides of the Lake.
Zack pointed out this morning that there is a "slight" potential for some frozen precipitation (sleet) behind the Arctic front next Tuesday morning. before the real chill arrives, we have the first wave of colder air Friday morning. SPC indicates there is some potential for severe storms, but the bullseye is way north of Lake P.
You can see the higher dew points/low level moisture increasing over coastal Texas, but it appears the fast movement of Friday's front will limit rainfall and any severe risk here. Nicondra showed us very few showers according to the latest computer model.
So let's get back to the coming cold. Why will the Arctic blast head into the lower 48 after being absent all of December? Let's review the shift in the upper pattern expected into next week.
I've drawn the current upper pattern on the satellite view with the upper trough over the Rockies. Now watch how that moves to over the Great Lakes. The graphic below the satellite view is for Friday morning with the "Polar Vortex" over western Canada. That vortex rapidly shifts to the Great Lakes on Saturday and rotates back around into Canada during early next week. But notice, the main upper flow is straight down from Canada into the lower 48. Take a look at what's up in Canada right now.
There still 30-40+ below zero air up there and the 10-20 below zero line has dipped across Montana & North Dakota into Wyoming. This air mass will be the coldest for us in several years, but we still have time to get ready. Finally...
There is a huge surge of water coming down the upper Mississippi & Ohio Rivers. Note how the Carrollton gage jumps 3-4 feet during the next 10-14 days. Gosh, lots for us to keep tabs on for the next couple of weeks BEFORE the carnival parades begin. Stay tuned!
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