Frosty Start Only A Sign Of things To Come...

After the recent stormy weather that gave us 2+" of rain, I moved several of my potted plants into my back He-Shed to keep them protected from any frost or freeze.  We did have some patchy frost on my rooftops this morning despite my temp. gauge only getting to 36.  Many locations away from the Lake north & south did get below freezing.

We have reached what is, historically, the coldest 3 weeks of the year.  Note the record low for today is 16 back in 1962.  That tells me this is the time of the year for extended hard (under 28 degrees) freezes that last several days.  Models are hinting the cold is coming in waves with the first arriving late Friday followed by a stronger surge late Monday and yet another late NEXT week.  What is changing to bring down the cold?  I mentioned yesterday the active upper pattern that extends from out over the Atlantic back over the U.S. and out into the Pacific

The storm over the Pacific NW is what will trigger our Friday weather with the much stronger system out over the Pacific that will buckle the jet stream and bring the cold down from Canada.  There is a lot of Super cold (40-50 below) across Alaska into Canada.  That will surge southward over a growing snowpack.

That snow cover will increase with Friday's storm so the cold air will not have much reason to moderate as it heads southward.  Here's what the FOX 8 Extended is calling for.

Note the hard freezes for next Tuesday & Wednesday mornings even on the South Shore.  What am I seeing?  I think Tuesday and Wednesday's cold will not be that drastic (22-26 North, 29-33 south) as the upper trough doesn't did over the Great Lakes.  Look at the latest model run.

The top upper air graphic is valid for Friday morning with a slight dip to our north.  that quickly lifts to the east.  The middle graphic is valid for Tuesday morning.  Note how the flow over us is west to east telling me the core of the cold will stay to our north.  but now look at the bottom view that is valid for NEXT Saturday.  There is a much stronger "Polar Vortex" that drops over the Great Lakes.  That signals to me NEXT weekend will be the colder time and not on Tuesday & Wednesday.  We have days to watch it.  In the short term, will Friday's front bring us more strong storms?  SPC has a slight risk here, but jumps the level 3 over the SE. on Friday.

Current dew points show why.  As the front approaches us early Friday, low level moisture will be quite limited so our severe threat is low and rain totals should be less than an inch.

Clouds are streaming back over us so tonight will not be as cold as last night.  Milder air is showing up over south Texas and you'll notice a different feel to the air tomorrow and on Friday before the cold comes back.

By this time tomorrow, the Arctic air will be more widespread across the Rockies & northern Plains.  All of next week looks quite cold.  You snow geeks are wondering, will this be the week?  Gotta get cold enough first.  Finally...

I meant to brag yesterday, but I forgot.  Michigan is the National Champions in football.  That might make Nick Saban retire.  R U. kidding me?!!! Stay tuned!