Active Pattern Continues, More Storms Friday, Arctic Blast Next Week...

Yesterday's storms are long gone, but models are already indicating we'll see a new threat here by late Thursday into Friday.  The upper energy from yesterday's system is now over southern Illinois with the new disturbance along the NW Coast.  That energy dives to the Se and develops a surface low over Oklahoma or Texas by Friday.  It appears we'll get into the warm air sector, hence the possible severe threat.  SPC is already allover it with us in the level 2 (slight) risk.

As Zack showed us this morning, there is some wrap around frozen precipitation into NW Louisiana Friday PM.  We'll see another shot of cold air, but that's only a preview of what's coming next week.  His what the models are predicting.

The "Polar Vortex" is expected to dip over the northern Great Lakes with the upper flow straight out of Canada.  Super cold (40-50 below) air will flow down into the lower 48 with the bottom graphic being the computer model temp. predictions for next Tuesday morning.  Note St. Louis is 14 below, Chicago 18 below and MSY 29.   Could the model be right?  Absolutely, but I'd like to see more model runs agreeing before I declare hard freeze coming.  What might tell us those brutal temps are possible?  Current snow cover.

FOX 8 is buying into it as you can see on their extended forecast.  I see no reason to disagree right now.  Certainly I'll be watching it closely as I'd have to get my plants & yard ready for a hard freeze.  Plenty of days before action is required.

In the short term, clear skies and decreasing wind will bright a light freeze North Shore and away from Lake P. south.  I'm not doing any precautions tonight.

Wednesday should see little wind and bright sunshine making for a beautiful day.

Note the dew points in south Texas are in the teen & 20s so it will take some time for low level moisture to return ahead of Friday's cold front.  My house has had over 4" of rain in the first 9 days of January.  That's after nearly 10" in December.  Will be interested to see Thursday's drought monitor.  Stay tuned!