Mea Culpa To The Model, Clouds Lingered Longer...

I ended yesterday's post wondering why the FOX 8 Extended kept clouds over us for Saturday.  After all, the visible satellite loop had the upper low pulling well up into the Great Lakes with clearing skies moving into SW Louisiana.  I would have bet the house, ok at least the back shed, that Saturday would start out sunny.   But nooo, weather breath!  Clouds lingered past the noon hour before we turned sunny.  Turns out, the model was partly correct.  So what did I miss?  Let's look

These views are from 4 PM on Friday when we were just about getting into the heavier rainfall. Note Houston is already sunny.  Fast forward to 10 AM today.  The showers are long gone, but low clouds linger over all of Louisiana.  In fact, they have spread farther back towards Houston.  Why?

The middle views are the water vapor channel, which depicts moisture in the layers between 15-20,000'.  I used the Water Vapor loop to find swirls that did not show up on the regular satellite channels.  So what did I find?  A small, but significant swirl coming out of the Rockies. My guess, that is what caused the clouds to linger since there was no slow moving upper level low over us.  Whatever, apologies to the model & FOX 8. FYI, computer models are indicating our next storm system coming Monday & Tuesday will be stronger than yesterday's.

The little swirl on Water Vapor has already lifted into Missouri with a new well defined swirl plowing into the Pacific NW.  The bottom graphic is valid for Tuesday morning taking that swirl/upper energy across Oklahoma & Arkansas much closer to us.  That should result in a surface low forming near Dallas with a warm front surging out of the Gulf.  We should easily get into the warm air sector (70s) that favor severe weather development.  SPC has included all of the northern Gulf coasts in a level 2 (slight) risk area.  That is likely to increase as we get closer to the event. Hannah Gard gave us the timing on her morning programs.

Note how the model is lining up the bands of rain SW-NE indicating a "training" event is setting up.  Rainfall potential hints at that with a 2-3" band over us, but a 6"+ band not far to our NW.  We'll need to pay full attention to the weather Monday PM into Tuesday morning.

Hannah highlighted the FOX 8 First Alert for Monday.  IF the warm front surges to our north, we'll get into the 70s.  FOX 8 is being less aggressive keeping us in the 60s which would limit the severe potential.   We have another day to monitor it.  Finally...

Several people have commented about the coming POLAR VORTEX" for the next 6-10 days.  With temps. up in Canada 30-40+ below zero, we need to be aware of a freeze POTENTIAL here.  However, the newer model run was not as deep/aggressive keeping the coldest air well to our north.  I suggest you don't go crazy worrying since we're likely to see the model flip-flop during the coming days.  In the short term, we have no freeze worries.   I may not post until late Sunday PM since I'm going to the Saints game.   Saints 31 Falcons 17.  Who Dat!  Unfortunately, I don't see Tampa losing to Carolina, but there's always hope!    Stay tuned!