Saints Go Out Winners, Refocus On Monday's Stormy Weather...

Years ago when Ch. 8 was owned by Tom Benson, I was invited to his 50 yd. line suite to watch a Saint's game.  I was so honored to be invited back by Miss Gayle today and it was so much fun once our guys realized how bad the Falcons are.  The views & food were terrific, being on the field pregame so special and our Who Dats got rolling in the second half.

But now it's back to some serious reality as the pattern shaping up for tomorrow night into Tuesday screams severe weather outbreak across the northern Gulf Coast.  The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is all over it highlighting a large area of level 2=3 (enhanced) severe risk with the bullseyes over SE LA/MS.  In addition, we're under a Flash Flood Watch and a high Wind Advisory.

It's a complex explanation, but let me try.  We begin with the upper set up.

The satellite view has a fast moving southern jet stream bringing the clouds over us now.  The main energy is near Las Vegas and the models predict that energy to deepen and race to the east.  Unlike the last one that lifted to the NE, this disturbance comes closer to us.  The rain will come in waves with the first coming with the warm front surging our of the Gulf and the second ahead of the cold front after midnight on Tuesday morning.  Here's the timing from Hannah Gard this morning. 

The timing is likely to change some with each model run so make sure you keep up on the weather, especially after the noon hour tomorrow.  My concern will be the strong SSW upper flow that will result in the training of cells over the same locations.  You can see that in the model rain potential.

We all know the limited pumping capacity in Orleans Parish cannot handle 4-6"+ so that is why FOX 8 has issued a FIRST ALERT.  In my day, I called it a "pay attention" day.  The greatest severe threat doesn't arrive until Monday afternoon and night hours.

In the short term, we have the thickening clouds over us with a return to southern winds as the surface high pulls to our east.  Note south Texas is near 70 and we'll reach that IF the warm front gets to our north late Monday.  Low level moisture is limited now (dew points in the 40s), but that will quickly change.  This will be a fast moving system with all the rain gone by Tuesday morning.

Finally, the internet is going crazy with the "Polar Vortex" dropping into the lower 48 for late this week into next.

There's plenty of super cold (30-40 below) air in Canada and all of the northern states will get into the deep freeze.  The last graphic is the model forecast valid for 2 weeks from today.  IF that were to shift farther to the west and south, then I'd say we'll have a hard freeze threat coming for Jan. 15-20th.  Plenty of time to watch that.  Focus on severe for Monday Gang.  Have your FOX 8 Weather App. set up to warn you. Stay tuned!