Model Consistency Makes For A Soggy Saturday

Back in my working days, I would love to disagree with the models if I had strong feelings/reasons to stick my neck out.   One reason NOT to disagree with the models happened when the daily run to run model forecasts didn't flip-flip.  That has been the case the past several days with the models focusing in on Saturday afternoon & evening as the wettest time period.  Nicondra showed the current timing on her 4 PM program.  The top view has some light passing showers arriving just before the noon hour.

There has been no change in model timing as the heaviest rains reach the South Shore around 3 PM & linger through 8:30-9 PM.  Are we expecting severe storms?  Not according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) or the National Weather Service.  In fact, SPC's severe outlook looks like this.

The top view is valid for today with a level 2 (slight) risk for Texas.  But note that they don't extend that risk over us for Saturday with level 1 (marginal) staying south along our coast.  That doesn't mean we won't get into some heavy rainfall.  Here are the rain total potential forecast.

The top view was from this morning while the bottom is the latest update.  NWS is calling for 1-3", but there is the potential for higher totals along the coast.   So what is causing our weather to go "into the dumper/dumpster" for Saturday.   Blame it on a "Rex block" in the upper air pattern.

There is a large trough over the western states with an upper high centered over the northern Great Lakes.  That high is forcing the low over the 4 corners to "undercut" the high while the low over Wyoming tracks to the north around the high.  The southern low is projected to move right across Louisiana bringing us the dramatic change in our weather.

The bottom graphic is the current dew points which kind of indicate why severe weather is not expected.  Alarms start to go up when dew points top 70.   Even south Texas sees DPs  only in the 60s.

What a night for parades!  But alas, it won't last.

Not to be a downer for next weekend, but weather often goes in cycles.  Another major storms will plow into California and head out way.  Again timing will be crucial.  Many days to watch it.  Finally...

Yesterday's fishing with Captain Hylton had a great start with a spectacular sunrise as high, thin clouds made for some great colors.  Those clouds also created a ring/halo around the sun as the sun's light was refracted/bent making a perfect circle.  Note, there is an airplane contrail right in the middle. We caught over 20 trout but only 4 were keepers.  Really surprised by the many smaller fish.   Get the rain gear ready & stay tuned!