Models Nailed Timing 3 Days Out. Very Impressive

As someone who would often challenge the computer guidance ( because I knew the computer models were often wrong), I'm impressed by how BOTH (GFS, Euro) major forecast models agreed on the timing of today's rainstorms.  7 days ahead of time they indicated higher (40%) rain chances for Saturday, which gradually increased to 80, 90 then 100% the closer we got to the event.  At three days, all channels were calling for 100% chances for rain.  What's remarkable is not that all channels agreed, but that the models didn't flip-flop as we got closer in time.  The timing for the heaviest rains were 3-6 pm and that's what happened.  Rain totals were forecast to be 1-2" with some higher 2-4" amounts mainly south.  I begin with Amber Wheeler's AM rain Forecast map.  Nailed it!

It could have been worse as we never got into the warm air sector.  Note all the lightning strikes south of Grand Isle.  We have seen some training of storms during the past hours & NWS has issued Flood Advisories.  Gang, stay off the roads until after 8 PM and allow the pumps to catch up.  Houston has been sunny this PM and, hopefully we'll see some rays on Sunday.

I've been showing the  upper "Rex Block" (High above Low) on past posts and that high over the northern Great Lakes is forcing the southern lows from turning back to the NE.  In fact, the surface low south of our coast will deepen tomorrow and on Monday bringing us some cooler and drier air.

If we break out into sunshine on Sunday, we'll jump into the 70s like Houston.

Unfortunately, this southern storm track appears set to repeat again for next week's parades.  Look off the West Coast where the next soaker is approaching California.

For all you snow geeks, these storms are piling up the white stuff out west.  I grabbed these shots from outside Boulder & Superior, Colorado.  These pics are from 5 PM today. The top view is Pearl Street in Boulder.

Gosh, while it comes down it sure looks pretty.  It's only an airplane ride away!  Stay tuned & off the roads tonight until the rain end after 8 PM.