Oops, They've Done It Again !

If you recall last weekend's weather, computer models were predicting 3-4 days out that Saturday would be the main rain day, and was it ever!  Bravo models!  Fast forward to this week and the models have been saying for 3-4 days (check past posts) that the main rain day would be late Sunday after dark into early on Monday. That would result in most parade rolling dry with the exception being Bacchus.  Let's check first on what the model says. The 1-3 day total rainfall has shifted to the NE, but the heaviest stripe remains across north LA/MS.

Radar views pretty much show the prediction is right on.  Why hasn't that boundary moved our way the past several days?  Blame it on the stalled upper pattern that has the trough over the Rockies & the Ridge over the Southeast.

It is colder behind the front, but it's not an Arctic blast.   As the upper low over the 4 corners kicks out tonight, it'll start an eastward movement of the frontal boundary.  Here's the timing when our rain chances will be greatest.

As you can see, rain chances on Sunday are not zero with some spotty showers by late PM.  However, IF the model is correct, the real stormy stuff doesn't arrive until after 10 PM, perhaps even after midnight.  That would be great news for Bacchus, but I would suggest rain gear if you plan on watching parades tomorrow, even the earlier one.  The cold front blows through with significantly colder, but drier air for Monday & Fat Tuesday.

Actually, Sunshine and highs 60-65 will make for a great feel Mardi Gras.   In the short term, tonight looks fine for Endymion.

A couple of final notes, the Mississippi River is nearing a crest that will present no issues except for Ship Captains.

The bottom view looks at 4 PM temps up in Alaska & Canada.  Note the super cold (40-50 below) air is no where to be found.  I see nothing coming during the next 10-14 days that might suggest another freeze here.  Still, don't go planting the tomatoes yet!  And for you snow geeks...

My oldest son (Rob) & his wife (Sarah) finally had enough of the Colorado snowy & cold winters and moved to Albuquerque 2 months ago.  These are scenes from his house this morning.  Pretty while it falls, but then not so much.  In 2 days it'll all be melted except at the Taos Ski resort & local mountaintops.  As we head towards March, our slim snow chances grow slimmer every day.  Sorry.  Stay tuned!