The Quiet Before A Warm But Unsettled Weekend

Ever since our January cold snap, the past couple of weeks have seen us comfortable-wise.  We have had several wet spells that effectively have wiped out any remains of last year's drought.  But clearly, the focus is on the coming parade weather as we head towards Mardi Gras one week from today.  So let's begin with the latest GFS guidance that Nicondra showed us at 4 PM.  It removes all rain chances for Fat Tuesday.

I am not comfortable talking about rain chances out to 7 days.  Heck, even this morning Zack showed the broad brush model forecast that stalled a frontal boundary to our west.

The latest NWS discussion talks about how the Euro slows down that boundary allowing us to soar to near 80 on Friday & Saturday IF the rains stay to our north & west.   The models were very consistent with last weekend's rain threat.  Right now we're too far away to "bet the house".  Lots can change before Friday & the weekend.  Here is what we have right now.

A strong surface low off the Carolina coasts is driving down slightly cooler & drier air all the way down across the Yucatan.  The upper air set up across the country has lows off both coasts with a ridge in between.

For the first week in February, temperatures are way around freezing for most of the nation.  Minneapolis topped the mid 50s with no snow on the ground!

Some high, thin clouds will start to show up on Wednesday with more clouds for Thursday.  We could top 70 tomorrow and for the rest of this week.  Some morning fog could also be an issue beginning on Thursday.

For now, it looks like another fishing trip is coming with Captain Hylton.  Water temperatures are up 4-5 degrees from last week and we hope to do better.  Finally, in today's paper...

I guess some researchers have to justify their grant money?  Just because there have been 10 Super (winds greater than 180 mph) hurricanes/typhoons in the Pacific, they want to add another level to the Hurricane Categories.   Why?  Do they think some folks will say, "oh, it's only a Cat. 4 or 5 now.  We're not leaving until it reaches a 6?!!!"   Just me thinking, it's a dumb idea.   Stay tuned!