Widespread Severe Weather Outbreak Expected Tonight Up North...

While we normally start to warm up as we near March, the unusual Spring-like warmth extends up to the Great Lakes.  As an Arctic air mass descends from Canada with single digit temperatures, SPC has elevated their severe outlook to levels 2 & 3 (enhanced) covering many states.  The first Tornado Watch has been issued with many more to come as an upper disturbance moves out of the Rockies. Note, there are no storms yet west of the watch, but SPC expects the atmosphere to explode during the next 2-4 hours.   The orange circle is where the upper jet streams are splitting enhancing the low level uplift.

For some folks, like Chicago, the temperature fall will be extreme.

St. Louis topped 80+ while northern Nebraska was in the teens!  More important, see where the low level moisture (dew points 50+) has pushed into lower Michigan.  All the ingredients are there for a severe weather outbreak.

Nicondra showed us how the upper disturbance races out of the Rockies and over the Great Lakes while the system off of California tracks to our north by early Saturday.  That leaves us in an upper WSW flow which usually stalls fronts across the northern Gulf.  There is the possibility for some heavy (3-5"+) rain totals here by the weekend.

The reds & orange colors indicate 3-5"+ totals. It will all depend on where the front stalls.  Suffice to say, this weekend will not be as pretty as the last.  here's the timing of the cold front.

So we'll see a 15-20 degree drop in less than 3 hours.  Start off in shorts, but have the heavier gear handy if you're out after 3 PM.

But since the upper energy quickly lifts to the NE, we don't need to worry about the freeze threat coming into south LA/MS.  In fact, the chill only lasts a day as we warm back up for the weekend.

For those of you who believe the Winter cold is gone for good, know the cycles that make up "average/normal weather.  When we get unusually warm for 2-3 weeks, to balance that out, we typically get 2-3 weeks of unusually cold weather.  We might be significantly colder in mid March than in late February.  Don't put your sweaters & jackets/coats away just yet.  Stay tuned!