High Severe Risk Here After Dark On Monday

Yesterday FOX 8 issued a FIRST ALERT for  Monday night into early on Tuesday and today SPC concurs that a severe threat is coming.  In fact, SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has raised the severe threat to level 3 (Enhanced) for much of Louisiana & Mississippi for tomorrow AFTER DARK.  We begin with the area under greatest risk and then shift to the time line.  The top graphic is valid for today with the second valid for Monday. T-Storms are beginning to fire off over western Oklahoma right where SPC indicated they would.

Newly engaged Hannah Gard showed us the model time line on FOX 8 this morning.  Nothing has changed this afternoon.

Most of Monday will be dry with the severe threat coming first to the North Shore after midnight then to the South Shore between 2-6 AM.  Skies will quickly clear and Tuesday will turn out to be a warm & dry day.  So what's causing this severe threat?  It's a complex western upper trough that is ejecting eastward in several pieces.

As a surface low pressure develops just east of Denver, our winds will increase from the south tomorrow bringing in deep low level moisture.  A cold front now over west Texas will reach us after dark.  As the upper energy now over California races eastward, a large area of upper diffluence (splitting jet stream winds) will enhance the low level lift over LA?MS creating dangerous T-Storms.  here are the severe risks.

Again, take a deep breath, this is NOT for tonight or most of Monday.  It's based on model forecasts that indicate the ingredients are coming together for strong storms.  I agree.  It's "pay attention" Monday PM into early Tuesday.

We are under no immediate threat.  Let's make that very clear.  the threat, IF it comes, will be after dark on Monday into predawn on Tuesday.  For that to happen, dew points will have to surge into the 60s, so watch the dew points going into Monday PM.  IF we approach 70, that should tell you we might have a problem.

This evening is lovely with a brisk SE wind.  I will enjoy my walk with Bailey before sunset.

Remember, the 60% ( I'm thinking 90%) chance for rain on Tuesday is before daybreak.  We are in for a nice stretch of weather once we get by this severe risk Monday night.  Easter weekend looks terrific right now.  Stay tuned!