Slow Moving Cold Front Increases Weekend Rain Chances

With many parades scheduled for this weekend, the last thing we need is for a cold front to stall out over us.  Much like real estate, weather is dependent on LOCATION.  The upper pattern still has a trough over the west with pieces of energy racing out around it.  That makes forecasting the weekend weather a real challenge since an approaching cold front will slow down and stall somewhere over our state.  WPC's rain total forecast keeps the heaviest rains well to our north telling me that this front will be slower than models forecast.  Let's get into the details.  We begin with the rain totals where the 3-5" amounts are draped over north Louisiana.

Look at all the weak disturbances (yellow dashed lines) rotating around the trough.  It's a forecaster's nightmare.  Under the trough, temperatures are chilly with Spring warmth surging northward over the central Plains.

On the surface map, there is no front around us so any rainfall will result from weak upper disturbances racing through the WSW upper flow.

Bottom line, will we see any rain during the next 2 days?  Not much as I see the main rain chances coming late Friday into early Saturday.  There may be a brief break during the day on Saturday into the evening hours with another stronger bout of rains coming for early Sunday.  RIGHT NOW, the highest rain chances to me are on Sunday (90%) compared to 60% late Friday and 30% on Saturday.  Rains may linger into Monday morning.  Chances on Wednesday & Thursday are 20-30% at best.  My numbers are different than the FOX 8 7 day.

Before those of you involved in the St. Patrick Day parades go to the hard liquor, remember, today is just Tuesday.  Lots can & will change before the weekend.  What does appear to be certain, next week will definitely be a much cooler period.  I'm heading out fishing with Captains Johnny Lewis & Hylton Petit tomorrow & Thursday.  Stay tuned to Bruce for latest updates.