Southern Storm Threat As Upper Low Heads To Northeast

As I mentioned yesterday, SPC was including LA/MS in levels 2-3 for severe weather this afternoon and tonight.  Their thinking hasn't changed and they issued a Tornado Watch for areas to our west & north until 8 PM.  That Watch area is likely to shift over us later tonight.  Let's review the why. The upper trough is advancing eastward with several disturbances rotating through it.  Where the base of the trough splits (lime green circle) from the sub-tropical southern jet stream is where the greatest upward lift occurs.  

SPC has been sounding the alarm for two days that the greatest risk will be just to our north.  My guess is the Tornado Watch will be shifted eastward and include all of the North Shore & coastal Mississippi for after dark. The FOX 8 First Alert is mainly between 10 PM-5 AM.

The bottom 2 graphics are from the National Weather Service's (NWS) website showing how the danger will shift eastward with time.  Radar at 4:30 PM indicates we have many dry hours before the rain arrives

All the white lines (isobars) on the surface map indicate a tight pressure gradient causing brisk gusty winds from the south deepening the low level moisture.  Dew points are approaching 70 across south Louisiana so the fuel is there to produce heavy storms.  Luckily, the storms around us should not linger as the total rainfall amounts are predicted to be less than an inch except 1-2" north of Slidell.

The main issue today has been the 20-30+ mph  SSE winds creating some high tides along the coast.  That will quickly change by morning as winds shift to the WSW and decrease.

IF skies clear behind the front and with WSW surface winds, our highs tomorrow could top 80+.  Just have your FOX 8 Weather App ready overnight in case any warnings are issued.  Finally,

2 weeks from today, there will be a total solar eclipse for parts of the country.  We won't get into the path of totality as you'll have to travel into Texas, Oklahoma or Arkansas to see day turn to night for 3-4 minutes between 1-2 PM.   I'll be there visiting my Grandson for his 5th B-Day.  Should be exciting.  Stay tuned!