Buckle Up, Batten Down, Get Ready For Strong/Severe Storms This Evening

Usually I try to down play severe weather threats & not over hype in case the "wolf" doesn't show up.  Between now & midnight, I'm "crying wolf" based on satellite & radar data and the trend from SPC.  We are now in a level three severe risk that has shifted southward since this morning.  let me show you beginning with the latest severe outlook.

The top being the most recent from SPC followed by what Zack showed us during his morning weather programs.  Note there is a band of 4-7" rain totals by Tuesday morning.  Go figure, the SWB now says one of their main turbines is out!  Cars on the neutral grounds tonight please! Now look how the severe risk area has shifted southward to include all of the South Shore.

Not surprisingly, NWS has us under a Flash Flood Watch tonight.  So what's going on?

A strong upper disturbance is slowly working eastward across the central Plains with spokes of energy rotating along the south side.  One cluster of stroms drenched the North Shore this morning and rapidly raced into Florida where a Tornado Watch (red box) is in effect.  The swirl over the Plains will stay to our north, but not the cluster approaching the upper Texas coast where Severe T-Storm Watches (Blue boxes) are up.

This complex over Texas is producing vigorous electrical (lightning) storms along with the heavy rainfall.  Nicondra timed it out at noon.

Based on the midday information, that complex plows through SE LA/MS between 8-11 PM tonight, but make sure you watch FOX 8 at 4 & 5 PM as models seem to be changing/updating hourly.  This is not a cold front generated severe threat, but rather upper disturbances moving along a stalled frontal boundary draped from Texas to Georgia.  Note the 70+ dew points indicate plenty of low level moisture is available to fuel the heavy rain rates.

Once these disturbances race by us, skies will clear and we should dry out for Tuesday, Wednesday into Thursday.

So the Breckster is joining NWS & SPC is alerting you for a heavy rain event later this evening.  Make sure your teenagers, husbands & loved ones are off the streets between 7-11 PM.  Let's watch this from the safety of our homes.  Keep your phone nearby as the FOX 8 Weather App will alert you when/if warnings are issued.  Stay tuned!