Here We Go Again, Another Severe/Heavy Rain Threat

After watching the last severe event fizzle before reaching us, I'm not going bonkers yet.  It's the same weather pattern that has repeated itself quite often this Spring.  An upper level disturbance sits over the Rockies with spokes of energy rotating around it triggering waves of heavy rainfall & rounds of severe storms.  Here's the set up.  There is a splitting of the jet streams across Texas into Louisiana enhancing the upper lift triggering strong storms. 

SPC has a level 3 severe risk to our west today shifting to a level 2 risk here tomorrow.    In addition, WPC's heavy rainfall totals (4-6")stretch west to east mainly across the North shore.

The question for tonight into Friday is...will the tornado threat be extended over us?  Here are the current watches. Red box = Tornado Watch, blue = Severe T-Storm Watch.

Why am I not jumping on the severe/heavy rain threat?  Simply because there appears to be great uncertainty as to timing & location.

Let's just pay attention to the forecast tonight into Saturday as it could really turn ugly.  Until the upper disturbance gets past us, the surface boundary will focus rounds of heavy rains from Texas to the Florida beaches.

It appears we will dry out some by Sunday.  Next week really starts to feel Summer-ish.

The satellite view of the Gulf captures what appears to be lots of smoke coming out of Mexico.  The current pattern should keep that south of LA/MS.

Finally, I went fishing yesterday and today.  The sunset & sunrise were terrific while the fishing was OK.  However, I did catch my biggest trout ever.

The trout measured 22" and was very fat.  I just felt it was full of roe so I released it after having Captain Hylton take this photo.  I highly recommend retirement!  Stay tuned!