Weak Weekend Front Still Coming, Slow Movement Increases Rain Chances

Maybe just me, but it appears all the local weathercasters seem to take joy about showing us how hot we're going to feel (Heat Index) ahead of our next cool front.  From late May through mid September EVERY day will have the Heat Index in the danger zone (105+).  It's called Summer in the South.  But as we approach our first 90 degree day, here it comes, how hot does it feel?  Nah, I'm gonna focus on what will break the current early season heat, a weak cool front.  We'll begin with the upper flow drawn on top of the satellite view.  Note how it's parallel to the frontal boundary.  In fact, the southern end of the surface front has backed up.

Yesterday Dallas' dew point had dropped to 51.  Today it's back above 70+.  For today, the severe threat is well to our north as outlined by SPC with a level 4 risk from Missouri into Tennessee.  Numerous tornado watches (redboxes) & Severe T-Storm Watches (blue box) have been issued.

SPC shifts the threat farther to the south for Thursday bringing a level 2 (yellow) severe risk to the North Shore. For right now, all of the current storms are heading to the east.

But the bottom graphic is the 5 day rainfall forecast with a 3-5" path stretching from Texas into LA/MS.  We will need to pay attention late Thursday into early Friday as storms near us.  Here's the NWS frontal forecast beginning with Thursday PM followed by Friday morning.

NWS does keep the front moving and that would minimize the heavy rain threat.  The bottom 2 views are valid for Saturday morning followed by Sunday AM.

Since I'm posting early, this is the FOX 8 7 day from noon time.  Check with their 4 & 5 PM programs to see the latest.  My guess is they will update the Thursday & Friday rain chances, especially for the North Shore.  Another round comes late Sunday into Monday.  Stay tuned!