TD 2 Forms, Should Be Beryl

Had to pop a Valium (just kidding!) after watching Dr. Knabb on TWC.  He certainly is Mr. Anxiety!  Yes we have, as expected, Tropical Depression # 2 way out in the Atlantic and, yes it will become Beryl (maybe already has) within hours.  But, to show models out to 10 days where it might go?  Nah, that's hyping the danger.  NHC is being aggressive on ramping Beryl up to a Cat 2 hurricane before weakening her south of Cuba. Let's go over the graphics. beginning with the satellite views. The middle circle is TD 2.

Clearly there is a bright cluster of storms near the center of circulation & NHC will soon upgrade her this evening.  Here's their official track.

An interesting fact is NHC strengthens Beryl to a Cat. 2 Hurricane by Tuesday, but then weakens it over the western Caribbean.  Joe Bastardi of Weather Bell Analytics thinks the favorable stage (rising air) of the MJO is currently over the Atlantic, but the MJO over the Gulf & Caribbean next week will be in the unfavorable stage (sinking air) stage.  We shall see.  Looking at the color Infrared view and TD 2 sure looks like a Tropical Storm right now.

Since it is too far out for Recon flights, NHC is being conservative on naming it without real flight data. The reason I'm not concerned with anything threatening us during the next 10-14 days is that old upper heat dome that will block/protect the northern Gulf.

That strong tropical wave (94 L) over the western Caribbean has an upper mid level low, but you can tell by the color view, nothing is organizing.  IF something does form, it can't head north.

Since we have no tropical threats coming and no cold fronts, our only cooling relief is from spotty storms.  The seven day is not a great help during the summer months.

We are almost through the first month of the 2024 Hurricane season.  The average date for the second named storm is July 3rd so we'll be running slightly ahead of average.  The numbers aren't important.  Location is.  Enjoy your weekend & stay tuned!