Tropical Storm Beryl, Steady As She Goes, Hurricane Warnings Issued

Since my earlier post, there has been zero change in thinking as to where Tropical Storm Beryl is headed.  Despite now being over the open waters of the west central Gulf, Beryl remains a Tropical Storm.  She has not been able (fortunately) to recapture the structure she had as a Cat. 5.  Let's compare satellite views.  We begin when Beryl was that Cat. 5.

Clearly the new Beryl lacks the structure of her old self.  Cat. 5 Beryl had a distinct eye and was very symmetrical.  Tropical Storm Beryl has a center, but her structure seems stretched out.

 

The red arrow is where I'm guessing the center is.  The lime green arrows should be feeder bands rotating towards the center.  However, dry air wrapping around the south and east sides are keeping those bands from developing.   Since the new Recon flight is just arriving into Beryl, NHC has chosen to be conservative and stick with their previous forecast with only minor tweaks.

The bottom 2 graphics are the blown up tight centerline track with the top being the 4 PM advisory with the 10 AM below it.  Can you see any changes?  What I see is a subtle shift ( 10 miles) to the right/east and an upgrade to hurricane warnings (red line) vs watch (purple line). There still is time for future shifts to the right as the forecast error at 48 hours is 60-70 miles.  It appears Corpus Christi will be on the weaker side of Beryl with Galveston/Houston on the stronger side. Hope they are prepared?   So what will steer Beryl as she approaches the coast late Sunday into Monday.?

I've drawn the deepening trough that will eventually pick Beryl up and pull her to the Northeast.  Unlike Harvey in 2017, Beryl will not stall but still will be a slow mover with the potential to bring us some heavy rain bands on Monday & Tuesday.

We are not seeing any effects (outer swells) from Beryl yet.  That will change on Sunday as 8-10 foot  wave heights are down around her center and will be spreading outward.  The new Recon flight will give NHC a clearer idea whether further tweaks are needed to their forecast.  The track looks pretty settled.  Now the question will be, will Beryl regain Hurricane strength before landfall.  All models say yes.  Finally, 3 weeks from tonight,

I am honored to again be the MC at the awards ceremony along with this year's President, Lafourche Parish D.A. Kristine Russell.  I invite you to come join us as just by registering, you could win the grand prize of $ 10,000!  More to come in future posts.  Stay tuned!