Again, Many Tropical Swirls, Focus ON NW Gulf

 Today NHC added another potential area for development in their Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO).. The two way out in the Atlantic?  Forget about them!  The system off the East Coast?  Forget about it! How about the central Caribbean? We have time to watch for NEXT week.  But I'm more concerned about something in the NW Gulf close to home that is NOT on the NHC's  TWO. We'll set up the big picture and then focus on the Gulf.

What bothers me is there seems little concern for what might develop in the Gulf during the next 2-3 days.  The wave down in the Caribbean is not the immediate concern.  Focus on the Gulf where there are two swirls along the Texas coast.

So what am I seeing?  Not much, as there is no concentration of storms, just a random pattern.  There are spokes of energy/squalls rotating around a broad center.  Surface pressures are not falling, so what bothers me?

The increase in our winds and waves could be associated with the interaction between the weak Gulf low and the surface trough that extends over the northern Gulf into the Atlantic east of the Carolinas.  Note the high wave heights there.  I get nervous when low pressure stays over the Gulf at this time of the year.  Even if nothing does get organized, the impacts over the next 2-3 days could be substantial. Our local NWS office posted these graphics beginning with a Flash Flood Watch.

Many areas today received 1-2"+ amounts, but another 4-6"(or more) could occur before a front reaches us late Friday night.  We need to stay focused on the Gulf and be ready to "hunker down" if a Depression or Tropical Storm develops.  I'm OK with NHC not highlighting the NW Gulf, but I also don't want any of you to say..."Geez, where did that come from?"  The weekend front is still a long way away.

What really is obnoxious is the 75-80 dew points along the northern Gulf.  We're in really tropical air that won't change before Friday night.

I guess the one bright spot is the lower temperatures.  Are we done with the 90s?  Probably not, as we have seen 90+ days well into October.  But there's more Lee Zurik!  Almost every one of the scientists who issued preseason hurricane numbers have brought down their totals, from 20-25+ down to 15-20. That's still would be an active season and the closer we get to October without activity, the better I feel. Stay tuned!