Low Forms Over Western Gulf, Will Weekend Front Stall?

On their 8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) today, NHC began talking about an area over the NW Gulf that has a slight chance for development.  This afternoon they are calling that area Invest 90-L.  On both satellite and radar views, to me this system is getting better organized.  However, as we have mentioned on previous posts, there is something keeping these disturbances from exploding.  We have lots to talk about as we focus on the Gulf.

It's very obvious, we are on the "wet side" of this developing low.  But it's more complicated than that. This is not a well defined system and past history tells us models do NOT do well with weaker systems. I see a mid level upper swirl slowly drifting closer to us with the low level spin on radar drifting slowly to the south.

The GFS Ensembles take 90-L southward this weekend.  That should be good for us since a front is coming down from the north, right?  Hold on, here's what I'm seeing for the next 7 days. Remember the wave down in the Caribbean? MY gut tells me that energy might move into the southern Gulf and combine with the energy from 90-L

The bottom 2 graphics are from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) for the next 7 days.  I don't like that track of heavy rains over the western Gulf into Louisiana.   But what about that front coming for this weekend?  here's the WPC's forecast, beginning with today.

You can see that the forecast has the front falling apart with the surface high with drier air pulling to the northeast.  That leaves the frontal boundary over us for most of next week.  Frankly, I don't know what to believe as the computer forecasts changes day to day.  As I said yesterday, it's September and we need to focus on the Gulf.  In the short term, our local NWS office is predicting more heavy rainfall for Friday & Saturday.

So far, we have seen bands of heavy rainfall rotate inland around the low over the NW Gulf.  One such band is over Biloxi/Gulfport.  IF you get stuck under one of these bands (training), you can pick up 2-3" in an hour.  I'm hoping that cold front will have enough "gas/push" to drive some of this tropical moisture off our coast.  But the upper energy coming out of Colorado will have to deepen the eastern trough.

You can see the lower dew points are up to our northwest, but will the front make it? The FOX 8 seven day is bullish that it will.

Oh I hope so since that front (and whatever is left of 90-L) will head back northward next week.  But there's more out there that could become Francine before this Gulf disturbance.

Geez, I'll be glad when we get deep into October and the real cold fronts blow through.  Until then, focus on the Gulf.  Stay tuned!