Say It Isn't So, Another Tropical Threat In Gulf For Late Next Week?!!!

 Here we go again, computer models hinting something will form that is not there yet.  Sound familiar?  It should since models had Helene forming 7-10 days in advance.  This time, the models are not as bullish at developing a strong system like they were with Helene.  However, since we have been in the favorable phase (rising motion) of the MJO, we cannot ignore, we are still no where near the end of this hurricane season!

I know many of you go look at all the models so I won't post any here until something develops.  I mentioned yesterday, I have a beach trip for next weekend.  I don't want another threat along the northern Gulf coast.  Will there be one?  Perhaps, but it's way too soon to start changing plans.  We're back to watching and waiting.  What will end this Hurricane Season for us?  Cold fronts!, but there are no signs of another front coming until the upper pattern changes.

We currently have a cut off low located near Memphis.  It has captured and absorbed what's left of Helene near Louisville.  The main jet stream enters the Pacific NW and streaks across southern Canada locking in any colder air far north of the lower 48.  Helene's circulation and the cut off upper low has brought down much drier air to us.  That will last through the weekend into next week.

This morning was the coolest (66) since back on April 30th.  With dew points in the 50s, tomorrow morning will feel the same.

So it looks like a great weekend for any outdoor activities here.  But lest we forget, the Tropics have awakened. Way out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Isaac has an impressive satellite signature.

But Isaac is moving out over the Atlantic and is no threat to land.  Tropical Storm Joyce has formed way east of the Islands.  She too will stay out to sea.

So let's look back at Helene.  Here are my thoughts.  Computer models did an excellent job 5-7 days out zeroing in on the Big Bend area of Florida.  Here's the NHC landfall 5 days out.

To me, that's incredible accuracy!  Bravo NHC!  But they weren't alone.  Look at the track AccuWeather put out BEFORE the NHC track.

Not bad even if their cone was way too wide.  The new storm surge forecast from NHC was terrific.

Tampa Bay ended up with 7.2 feet of surge, the greatest in modern times.  And that came with the eyewall staying 100+ miles offshore!

I've seen the videos from Pinellas County, FL. showing how the surge brought boats into people's yards and water into many homes.  Hard to believe, but this was NOT the big one for Tampa Bay.  A shift in track 30-40 miles to the east would have made neighborhoods from Sarasota to Clearwater to Tampa uninhabitable for weeks and months.  That happened to the Fort Myers area after Ian.  What you should learn from this storm is this. RESPECT the power of moving water.  If you live long enough, you could see the big one. Run from the water unless you have elevation higher that the predicted surge.  Prayers for all those hard hit from Florida into the Carolinas.  The death toll has now passed 40. Zack Fradella had thi9s graphic this morning.

Helene makes it the 4th U.S. hurricane landfall in 2024.  Back in 2005, 2 of the 5 landfalling storms occurred in October.  Sorry to tell you, We are NOT done with more Hurricane threats this season.  Enjoy your weekend, but start paying attention again next week.  Stay tuned!