Wow, Oh What A Night! Francine Turned Mean

 Francine is the first hurricane that knocked me off posting since Katrina.  I don't blame Entergy since I never lost power (Have a Full House generator anyway), but my Cox cable failed around 7:30 taking down my internet connection too.  My oldest son (Rob) tells me about something called "Hotspots" that could heave been my back up?  I'll look into it.  Since I lost the ability to get data or watch any of the local stations, I'll limit this post to what I know.  And what I know is NHC's centerline track proved to be WRONG.  Yeah, they may claim it fell within the cone of error, but those jogs to the right/east were not predicted or expected. NHC had the centerline track move over Morgan City and Gonzales with Baton Rouge getting into the western eyewall.

Bruce Katz showed the NHC official centerline just off the coast.  He had been showing a model called the "Graf" model that took the center much farther to the east.  Here's what turned out to be reality.

Nicondra at noon showed the track with several "wobbles".  The first took it east of Morgan City into Terrebonne right over Houma bringing the eastern eyewall right over Kenner.   MSY reported a wind gust to 78 mph.  But then look what happened next.  Francine headed northward & then jogged straight to the east over Lake Pontchartrain bringing all of St. Tammany into the eyewall.   Geez,  these last minute wobbles do make a difference.  Stay to the left(west) of the centerline finds lesser impacts.  IF you see that centerline track shifting your way so you get into that "right front quadrant", look out! And Francine was justa Cat. 1 or 2?  

The eye ended up over Houma/Thibodaux and that shift brought severe impacts into Greater NOLA.  However, that is what Bruce was saying all along.  So what surprised me?  1) How Francine strengthened at landfall and didn't weaken right away. She was way stronger than I expected. Next time I'll close my shutters for a Cat. 1 or 2!  2) The lack of any rainfall on her southern side.  There certainly were winds, but I had 7.76" ahead of the center and only .05" on the backside.  3) How the internet/Cox went down long ahead of the strong winds & rain.  Disappointing.

Francine's circulation is stalling over Arkansas and Tennessee and that will cause some serious flood issues.  For us, it looks like a great weekend.

I don't see anything forming in the Gulf in the next 7-10 days.  That will get us into the latter part of September when cold fronts should start coming.  We'll see. Not even thinking of calling the "Fat Lady" yet!  Stay tuned!