Milton Explodes To Cat. 5, Track Shifts To North, Full Alert For Florida's West Coast

My mentor at Ch. 13 back in the early 70s was the Director of Weather Services, the late Roy Leep. He was Mr. Calm, Cool & Collected on-air during hurricane threats. However, in Roy's 40 years (1957-97) with WTVT -TV, he never had to face what's coming to Tampa/St. Pete./Clearwater/Sarasota during his career.  In fact, Tampa always seemed to dodge the bullet, although recently, Helene did give them quite a battering.  Now comes Milton, a rapidly intensifying Cat. 5 Hurricane bordering on the strength of Andrew back in 1992.

Milton has been moving ESE since last night, and that will bring part of his circulation over the northern tip of the Yucatan this evening. Models have been calling for a turn back to the NE with the centerline track north of Tampa Bay. That is a worse-case scenario in terms of storm surge there. Helene brought 5-8 feet into Tampa Bay, but Milton will be much higher.

So is this track locked in stone?  No way.  I suspect it will shift several more times, but if the current northward trend continues, that is not good for the Bay area.  Remember what Dr. Greg Postel said on The Weather Channel this morning. IF you can avoid the EYEWALL, you survive the storm.  Doesn't mean you won't have impacts, but they should not be catastrophic.  That's why we follow that centerline forecast.

That turn to the north is probably due to a leftover frontal boundary that may draw Milton to it. The farther north he goes, the greater the wind shear.  That is why NHC weakens him from a Cat. 5 to a Cat. 3 at landfall. Regardless, heavy rains will dump 4-6" for much of central & south Florida.

Note how the wave heights have ramped up.  This increase has happened long before Milton reaches the Loop Current tomorrow.  Obviously, anyone planning a trip to central & south Florida should cancel/delay it.  If you live along the west coast and had flooding from Helene, then you need to evacuate again.  I'm sure it's full panic buying of the basics (food, water, gas), but there is still time to make last-minute preparations.  Don't take any chances with this one as Milton will be worse than anything Central/south Florida has seen in our lifetime.  I'll post again after 4 PM. Stay tuned!