Milton Wobbling, Getting Stronger Again, Flee The West Coast

Gosh, I'd hate to be one of the NHC's Hurricane Specialists trying to figure out/pinpoint landfall locations at 36 hours out.  As their discussions have indicated, the forecast error at 36 hours can be 60-70 miles. That's huge regarding who gets the greatest impacts and who doesn't.  But can you risk that the wobble will be away from you?  That's why NHC must over warn the areas covered by the Hurricane Warning.  But what are these wobbles? Look at Milton's track just north of the Yucatan. 

The latest wobble to the right places Milton's track outside the eastern side of the cone of error.  Is that a temporary jog?  Or does it mean NHC may continue the track shift to the south?  As I await the 4 PM advisory, let's go through Milton's setup. The color view sure looks like Milton has regained Cat. 5 strength.

And he still has the Loop Current to pass over tonight before reaching land tomorrow.

You can see lots of dry air covers the northern Gulf along with westerly winds that will keep Milton away from the northern Gulf coastlines.  OK, the 4 PM advisory is in and let's see if the centerline track has changed. As expected, Milton is back to Category 5 strength at 165 mph.

With that jog/wobble to the right, NHC has nudged the centerline slightly to the south over Sarasota,  IF this proves reality tomorrow, the worse surge heights would be south of Tampa Bay/St. Pete.  Heads up Ft. Myers/ Boca Grande/Sanibel! Regardless of final landfall, this will be an extremely large & strong storm.

I trust all Florida residents along the West Coast have evacuated inland or live in an elevated strong structure.  The words I used yesterday "many neighborhoods will be uninhabitable for weeks or months" still apply.   Follow the orders of your local emergency managers.  Louisiana knows what's coming.  Run from the water!

Step outside today and you can feel the drier air filtering down from the north.  Dew points in the 40s & 50s are bringing in that old Fall feeling.   Hurricane Milton's circulation will keep Louisiana (and the northern Gulf coast) dry for the rest of this week.

An even stronger cold front is coming for next week and I have placed the call into "The Lady" to see if she's available to sing by late next week.  Until then, all thoughts & prayers are focused on central and south Florida, where life is about to be disrupted for many days.  Get ready to help them through your local church groups and/or the American Red Cross & Salvation Army.   Stay tuned!