Yesterday the GFS model (only one) developed a named storm south of Cuba and brought it northward into the eastern Gulf. I pointed out not to put too much concern into something that is not there yet, and might never happen. The evening model run last night kept this system out of the Gulf and today's run does the same. I'm convinced there are those who 1) just want to make folks nervous (Mr. Weatherman on YouTube) or 2) those connected to running up the number of names used each year. Whatever, here's today's model solution for NEXT Friday and Sunday.
Not only does nothing get into the Gulf, but nothing may develop into the next named storm. Remember The Lady already has sung for us (Turn out the lights) and look at how much cooler the Oceanic Heat Content has changed.
Sure there's plenty of warmth remaining down over the Caribbean. but the Gulf has really fallen off with these recent cold fronts. Even if a storm did form south of Cuba & move into the Gulf, tropical systems do not thrive in cooler waters. What I do sense is we will see a flip-flop in our recent warm spell to a much colder regime beginning NEXT weekend. The pattern this weekend keeps us warm & dry.
The WSW to Easterly flow over the U.S. will not allow the colder air covering Canada & Alaska to come south. But it's starting to really get cold (single digits) up north. No front is in sight until next Saturday.
Folks up north are using sweaters & jackets while we're still Summer-like across the Gulf South.
Today is day 21 without rain. In fact, the last time it rained (Oct. 4th) was my Birthday weekend at the beach. The FOX 8 seven day does increase rain chances ahead of the front next weekend. However, I remember my colleague Jeff Baskin's old saying..."When in drought, leave it out." I would not bet the house on much rain with this next cold front. Frankly, I'm loving this October weather , but I am watering my garden. Stay tuned!
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