All right, I know many of you have seen the GFS morning run that develops a named storm south of Cuba late next week and curves it northward into the eastern Gulf in the 10-12 day time frame. Let's begin with the usual...there is NOTHING there yet. Models have had some success (Milton) this season in the 10+ day time period, but they have also been really off with others (Beryl, Francine). TWC is talking about the possibility for another storm, so I can't just ignore it. Let's begin with where we have a Cat. 5 major hurricane in the eastern Pacific right now.
Fortunately, Hurricane Kristy is moving away from land towards cooler waters. Waters over the Caribbean, however, remain quite warm.
Historically, the area for formation late October into November is the western Caribbean. But as you can see, there is nothing there yet. The GFS model is bullish at developing something a week from tomorrow. The top graphic is valid for next Friday.
The bottom graphic brings the storm to the NW just south of Cuba by Sunday morning Nov. 3rd. The GFS then brings this system into the SE Gulf on Tuesday Nov.5th
Right now, the model takes the storm up Florida's west coast just like Helene into the Big Bend by Nov. 6th. Say it isn't so! How can the same areas be whacked 4 times in one season? Let's take a breath and remember this is just one model beyond the 7 day time frame. Hopefully that doesn't prove to be reality. Locally, our forecast won't change until the upper pattern does.
There's plenty of cold air up in Canada, but the west to east (Zonal) flow won't allow the chill to come our way. In addition, today is day 20 without rain. I don't see that improving for another week.
I love October weather and this year proves no exception to being the best month weather-wise.
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So whether you're in a boat or on the golf course, just get outside and enjoy the best weather in the nation right now. Those gloomy days of Winter are coming. Stay tuned!
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