Warm Pattern Across Most Of Nation, Slight Severe Risk Thursday

A lady at the supermarket came up to me to ask "Is it true we will have another snowstorm in February"?  I thought all the local weathercasters have repeatedly said that the internet rumor started last week was a hoax, false & totally misinformation to make people anxious for no reason at all.  They have shown the upper pattern that is blocking any cold air from entering the Gulf South for the next 10-14 days.  But the rumor still lives on.  Stop it!!!  Here's the upper pattern that has allowed us to warm up.

The freeze line has retreated to over the Great Lakes & Northeast with 40s & 50s surging into Montana. So stop the nonsense that another snow is coming.  There is NOTHING in our long-range guidance that suggests that.  Our next concern will be strong storms triggered by a slow-moving upper disturbance coming out of New Mexico.  I've placed an orange circle where it appears the upper jet stream winds will be splitting.

That is where WPC (Weather Prediction Center) places the heaviest (3-5") rain totals. (middle graphic).  The SPC (Storm Prediction Center), on the other hand, places the greatest severe risk (Level 2 slight) south across east Texas and most of Louisiana on Thursday.  Models are indicating this upper storm will weaken as it moves to the east and the line of showers should weaken too.  Nicondra showed those graphics at 4 PM. The top is valid for midnight Friday morning.

There remain some stronger storms at 3:30 AM across the North shore, but by 8 AM, most showers have weakened/dissipated as they approach us.   That's the solution of the GFS model.  Ahead of the front tomorrow, we'll be in the warm air sector and, if we see any sunshine, highs should be 75-80 degrees, a real Spring preview.

With 60+ dew points approaching us from the south, expect some dense fog to develop for tonight into Thursday morning.

There could be a stray shower during the daylight hours on Thursday, but IF we get any showers, they should come well after dark and towards dawn on Friday. Last Wednesday we had a fresh snow cover. Today we topped 70!

This next front will cool us slightly for Saturday and Sunday, but the air behind it is from the Pacific.  No signs of any Arctic outbreak coming to us through Feb. 10th.  Which reminds me, Valentine's Day is a little over 2 weeks away.  Oops, you haven't gotten your loved one a romantic gift yet?  Here's a suggestion.

One of my favorite pieces of artwork by my wife is this one called "La Vie en Rose" (Life in Pink).  Translated, it means seeing life through rose-colored glasses, seeing the beauty in the everyday, like when you fall in love. (Hold me close & hold me tight).  You can give this "Love Art" to your partner on this special day made for Love.  Brenda has listed it at $1,850 plus shipping. Contact her at brendabreck@gmail.com.