Stormy Night Here, Snowstorm Over Plains, Arctic Blast Brushes Us

We have a changing landscape weather-wise where we will see some soaking rains overnight and then a noticeable cool down for the rest of this week.  An Arctic cold front will plow into some Gulf Moisture and trigger some heavy rains tonight with some rumbles of thunder.  The severe risk is limited and confined to areas south of Lake Pontchartrain. Here are the NWS graphics.

Clouds are thickening and lowering and radar is finding stronger storms south of the Louisiana coast with some lightning.  SPC has a level one (Marginal) severe risk for us with the heaviest rains staying offshore

I saw a couple of peaks of sunshine today, but tomorrow looks overcast all day with falling temperatures behind the cold front.  A quick little snowstorm is tracking well to our north.

The bottom view is from my son's (Justin) house in Edmond, OK with about an inch of the white stuff.  Their temps are already down to 10 and falling!  The record low for OKC tomorrow is 3 with the forecast calling for 2 degrees.  Burr!!! So the question is repeated...will we see freezing temperatures here?  Let's go over what I know as to why I believe the computer forecast data is too cold for us. The top view is the upper flow today with a trough coming out of the Rockies.  Pay attention here as to where that trough goes.

IF it were to dig towards the Gulf, we definitely would freeze.  But here's the upper air valid for Thursday morning. IF correct, the energy heads to Ohio.

By Friday (bottom view) it streaks NE of Boston.  What does that tell me?  The core of the cold should stay to our north.  But there's more as Lee Zurik used to say.  Here are the surface maps for the next 4 days.  Pay attention to where the center of the Arctic high goes.

Typically our coldest outbreaks drive the center of the Arctic high into Texas to our west.  The forecast says that won't happen.  NWS is calling for Slidell (North Shore) to dip to 24-28 with the South Shore (MSY 31) 30-35.  I don't mind the 25-30 for the North Shore, but I'm thinking 34-38 south of Lake P.  However, for full disclosure,  I have covered most of my plants IN CASE the computer is correct!  This is quite an Arctic blast.

 

I am waiting until the rains are over tomorrow to cover my in-ground bougainvillea in my front yard. I'm also leaving out some potted plants to soak up tonight's rainfall before moving them into my shed tomorrow. 

Again, the FOX 8 extended is from the noon program.  I hope you enjoy my explanations and my opinions?  As a matter of facts, here are the differences since our January freeze after the snowstorm.  1) The length of daylight is over 30 minutes more, 2) The angle of the sun is much higher resulting in greater sun intensity, 3) The record lows are no longer in the teens but the upper 20s and, most importantly 4) we have no snow cover.  Hey, maybe the computer lows will be correct.  But computers don't storytell!  Stay tuned!