Fishing Trip Heals Most Woes, Slow Increase In Heat & Rain Chances

I've been enduring a difficult time in my life, and to get me off my pity pot, I went fishing with two long-time dear friends.  It was just what the doctor ordered, not because we caught our limits (we didn't), but the quality/size was outstanding. (trout 16-20", very few throwbacks).  Johnny Lewis caught his limit (8) of keeper redfish, while Hylton Petit & I caught two.  What was unusual about Captain Hylton's fishing was the TWO huge garfish he hooked.  The best part of the trip was the magnificent Monday sunset & the lunch we had at St. Bernard's finest restaurant. Let's start with the sunset, followed by the garfish.

They're called "Alligator Garfish" because they kind of look like an alligator & they have teeth!  My teeth chomped into a shrimp po-boy (dressed of course) at Rocky & Carlo's after a cup of seafood gumbo, yum!  Mr. Tommy & his staff make you feel like family.  May go again next Monday & Tuesday?!!!  Especially since our weather doesn't look like it's changing much.

The upper trough is stuck over the Rockies with several weak impulses racing across to the northeast.  Maybe towards late week, this trough will flatten, allowing a weak cold front to approach.  That would increase our rain chances for the final weekend of Jazz Fest.

I'm not sold on the front making it, but last weekend's isolated storms told me we're nearing the summertime pop-up activity. But not right away.

That front looks close, but it will struggle to reach us due to that SW upper flow.

Today a few storms popped up east of the Florida beaches. We're looking more and more summer-like, yet we're still in April!  Stay tuned!

Another Big Dumper across the South Shore, Almost Hot, Mostly Dry Week Coming

The Weathercasters I watched yesterday and this morning were indicating a building upper ridge would limit shower activity resulting with near record warm temperatures.  Again it's all about location and today's storms began on the East bank shortly after 2 PM.  I have some satellite & radar views showing how limited the T-Storms really were.  We begin with the Satellite at 1 pm when nothing was happening.  But focus your attention on the South Shore.

The bottom view is 4 pm with the arrows pointing out the cloud shadow from the tall T-Storm,  Radar really exploded with lots of lightning with this storm.  The first view is 2 PM followed by 3 PM & then 4 PM.

Just as quickly as it sprang up, it collapsed and was gone within 2 hours.  With the upper ridge shifting over us for Monday through Thursday, I see rain coverage around zero, and that should get us into the mid-upper 80s.

The temperatures show how the upper ridge has been over hyped as most temps are under 90.  We are in the time of the year when not much happens.  Unless we have a late-season front or early-season tropical activity, the weather is quite boring.

It's so boring, I'm going fishing the next two days with Captains Hylton & Johnny Lewis.  Haven't been in a boat since March 1st.  Really need to find some happiness right now.  Speckled trout & redfish can make that happen.  Stay tuned!

Beautiful Weather Day Except Over Avondale

Nash Roberts would call our summer weather "the rubber stamp forecast".  Dan Milham used to say it's "The MOTS (More Of The Same) forecast".  It's the time of the year when "Pop Up Showers" bubbled up from daytime heating and the interaction of the Sea Breeze & Lake Breeze fronts.   Today's satellite view clearly captures the sea breeze cloud line from Louisiana to Florida.  All was quiet until around 2 PM when a storm erupted (gold circle) right over Avondale and the Zurich Classic.  Lightning brought golf to a halt while across the River at the Fairgrounds, Jazz Fest was rocking under sunshine.

What happens as we head towards Summer is the jet stream retreats back to the north, leaving the southern states with limited upper air motion.  Today's storm sat over Avondale and just rained itself out.  That might happen again tomorrow, but I think the rain chances for the next 3-4 days will be slim to none as an upper ridge builds over us.

There is a stalled front to our north, but it can't come south since it has no support to drive it down to us. Maybe later next week, another front could get close increasing rain chances, but until then it's almost hot & mostly dry.

So if you're going to the Zurich or Jazz Fest, protect yourself from the almost May sun angle.  A wide-brimmed hat and sunscreen are required if you're outside for many hours.  Enjoy your Sunday and stay tuned!

Perfect Fest, Classic Weather, Cloudy, Breezy Warm Temps, Mostly Dry

We have two major outside events this weekend (Jazz Fest & Zurich Golf Classic) and today was as good as it gets.  Nearby storms created a canopy of clouds that provided a shield from the sun. Combined that with a brisk breeze from the SE  and temperatures were comfortable, not too hot.  Storms have been close, but south of Lake P. it's been a mostly dry day.

Hopefully tomorrow will see a repeat with just the widespread clouds and rain staying to our north and west.  The old frontal boundary has dissipated and now weak upper disturbances and daytime heating are triggering the storms.

That upper ridge down over Mexico will build northward over the weekend, resulting in more sunshine and hotter temperatures.  Slim rain chances for Friday and near zero for Saturday & Sunday. Another trough off the West Coast will move into the Rockies building the ridge over us.

My only concern comes this weekend as more sunshine will allow temps to flirt with 90 degrees.  Common sense always rules Gang.  Sunscreen, wide hats and stay hydrated.  

That summer feel is almost here.  Stay tuned

Heavy Rain Events Unpredictable, Summer Heat Coming For Weekend.

For several days, models were indicating increasing rain chances.  I downplayed any increase since breaking out of a multi-week dry spell is often difficult.  I was wrong, but the models were hardly right either as 4-8" of rain fell in two bullseyes.  Bruce commented last night that predicting exact locations for the heavy rain events is a huge forecast challenge.  My question is...why did the storms bubble up right over the South Shore and not drift across the Lake to the North Shore? Little movement.

Channel 8's ground truth weather watchers came in under the radar estimates, but the Orleans S&WB locations did have several close to radar estimates.  So here's the problem at this time of the year.  Fronts run out of "gas/momentum" as the jet stream retreats farther to the north.  Fronts stall/dissipate leaving behind boundaries that, coupled with upper disturbances, trigger slow-moving flooding rain storms.

It's impossible to predict the exact location where the heavy storms will bubble up.  Until the upper pattern changes this weekend, we'll have a higher rain threat for the next 1-2 days.

By Friday into Sunday, an upper ridge will develop reducing our daily rain chances to near zero.  We all know during the summer months, no rain means no relief from the heat. You can see that on current 4 PM temps.  Where it's raining it's cooler.

Actually, the decreasing rain chances will come just in time for Jazz Fest & the Zurich Golf Classic. But for today & tomorrow, keep the rain gear handy.

Looking at the temperatures, it's time to put away the winter gear and get your sweaters to the cleaners.  I do see another cold front coming late NEXT week, but they are no longer cold.  Stay tuned!