The first week in May, nation-wide, is off to a cool start with many locations still requiring sweaters & jackets. We will not see any extreme early May heat as two well defined upper lows are producing extensive cloud cover & showers resulting in some really chilly temperatures. We begin with the upper low in the West.
Cities like Phoenix & Las Vegas will struggle to reach 80 today. It's even cooler in the East with 40s & 50s.
That spin over Kentucky has brought down some delightfully cooler and drier air, a perfect day to close out Jazz Fest. The question now is, when will the front down over the Gulf pull back over us?
Monday should be another winner before changes arrive during the day on Tuesday. Computer models have some rain here on Tuesday. My experience with these well defined upper lows is they move very slowly at first. The location of the frontal boundary will determine whether we get into a multi-day rain event. Right now, NWS is pushing Wednesday through Friday with rain totals of 5-7".
I get nervous when folks start calling for flooding rains days in advance. Heavy rain events are almost never predicted well in advance. SPC keeps the severe risk to our west on Monday.
They slide the risk eastward on Tuesday, but they weaken the threat. We have plenty of time to watch this Western system.
Monday should be another beautiful day with plenty of sun & low humidity. We go downhill from there.
I would not get too excited about Wednesday & Thursday as there is still lots of uncertainty. Let's see where the frontal boundary sets up before we need to be nervous. The weather is so nice, I'm back fishing with Captain Hylton tomorrow & Tuesday. Stay tuned!
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