Stormy Night Coming, Rain Threat To Linger, Temps. Less Hot

I've mentioned many times before, almost all heavy rain events in our past 40+ years were NOT predicted days in advance.  Improved computer technologies have allowed forecasters to have SOME confidence in sounding the ALERTS/IMPACTS/WARNINGS days in advance.  But just during the past couple of months, the "cry wolf" has not happened.  Hard to go against all the data being put out by SPC/WPC/NWS offices regarding the heavy rain POTENTIAL for the next 3-4 days.  Let's begin with our local NWS office.

 

4-6" with some spots getting 10"+ is pretty strong.  My take?  Unless there is training of storms, most of us will get 1-3".  Here's WPC's heavy rain totals.  They broad-brush the amounts (4-7") over South LA/MS.

Again, the graphics are painting an evening & overnight where we need to pay attention and stay off the roads after dark.  There doesn't appear to be much of a severe risk here as SPC keeps the greater risks to our north & west.  The top is today, followed by tomorrow's outlook.

So, what is triggering all this concern?  As usual, slow-moving upper lows with a splitting of the jet streams over the southern states.

As you can see, there is a lot of lightning with these storms.  It could get noisy later tonight.

 

A couple of things to point out...there is a frontal boundary draped across south LA/MS.  Dew points are 70+ and will result in very efficient rainfall rates of 1-2"/hour.   But where is that boundary going to end up?   That will be the key to who gets flooded and who doesn't.

So let's all pay attention later tonight into Wednesday for heavy downpours that MIGHT result in some street flooding.  The thing to watch for?  Any "training effect" where storms set up going over the same location/track.   Had a good time fishing yesterday and today.  Not much catching, but a good time.  Stay tuned!