2 days ago, based on computer models, all stations were calling for an 80% chance of rain today. That was based on a training situation that didn't develop. In fact, some drier air filtered in behind yesterday's storms, making for a beautiful, almost hot Thursday. But that will change beginning during the day on Friday. Here's why. The upper low I mentioned over the Plains will sink our way parking itself right over us. The top satellite graphic is now followed by upper winds for Saturday AM, Sunday AM, & Monday AM .
We are barely on the "wet side" and there will be many dry hours. WPC's 5 day rain totals has the bullseye centered along the MS,AL & FL coasts. Our local NWS office mentioned there is "low confidence" in model solutions as these slow moving upper lows present a huge forecast challenge.
Finally, by Tuesday, that upper low lifts back to the north and should result in much drier conditions next Tuesday through Thursday. So as always, the location of the surface boundary down over the Gulf will be the focus of heavy rainfall. We'll need to pay attention from Friday PM into Monday for periods of heavy rain bands. In addition, upper lows mean colder air aloft and that might mean significant hail potential?
One benefit of the upper low is more clouds & showers result in below-average/normal temperatures. No early May heat wave this year. Maybe the 2nd half?
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More clouds and showers tomorrow should keep temps in the 70s. Nicondra showed us the model timeline at 4 PM.
The model does seem to focus the heavier rains to our south & east. Whatever, let's pay attention after the noon hour on Friday..
The next 4 days look wet & not so hot, but look at next week after the rains leave. Yikes! Our first 90-degree day? Boo! Several websites are already trying to say there might be an early-season named storm down over the Caribbean before the end of May. Why make folks more anxious when there is nothing there yet? Stay tuned!
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