Erin Behaving Following Track Forecast, GFS At It Again With Gulf Storm

The purpose for hurricanes is to transfer the heat of the Tropics northward towards the Pole.  That maintains the heat balance of the planet.  The best scenario is for any Tropical system to not impact land areas and to take their heat energy out to sea.  Hurricane Erin so far has done that, although her outer impacts/squalls have battered the northern Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico & the Dominican Republic.  All guidance indicates that the pattern will continue.

Erin is a much weaker Hurricane since she peaked at 160 mph, but she is expected to regain some strength as she turns to the north.

The color view still has a well-defined inner core and looks for another rapid intensification cycle to begin tonight.  Here's the NHC forecast track from 4 PM.

As Erin journeys off the East Coast, her circulation will keep us in the drier northerly flow for the first part of this week.  Below normal rain chances will result in highs 95-98.

As long as the Gulf stays quiet, I can live with the heat. Now looking ahead in the 7-10 day time frame. NHC has increased the probability for development over the MDR (Main Development Region)

I still see a lot of Saharan dust pouring off of Africa that should limit any short-term development.  However, the GFS is once again calling for a Gulf storm before the end of this month.

The time frame is for Wednesday, August 27th, 10 days from now.  We have seen this time and time again with the GFS.  It forecasts a storm that never forms.  Let's keep following what the models do during the coming days.  Certainly not getting concerned until something is there, and right now, nothing is there.

I'll be doing another podcast tonight to go into greater detail as to my feelings looking ahead.  You have to subscribe ($2/month) to get the extra information. 

Finally, the lack of rain over the upper & lower Mississippi River basin has allowed the river at the Carrollton gage to drop below 5 feet.

That's good IF any hurricane comes up the mouth of the River.  But I can almost guarantee we'll be hearing about the "salt water wedge" coming up the river during late September-October.  Stay tuned!