MJO Going Positive, NHC/Models Showing Increased Activity, Dexter Gone To Sea

NHC named the system off the Carolina coast Tropical Storm Dexter, the 4th named storm so far this year.  But it will not impact any land areas as it heads out into the cooler waters of the Atlantic. That's why the total number of storms each season is not the important issue.  Location is.  Take 1992, when we only had six named storms.  But one was  Cat. 5 Hurricane Andrew.

Dexter is already pulling away and, unlike Andrew, will be only a problem for the shipping lanes.  But his development signals that a change is coming in the MJO for the next 30-45 days. It is shifting into the positive (Favorable rising air) phase that should enhance tropical activity.  Look at NHC's Tropical Outlook for this week.

With increasing tropical activity as we approach the heart of hurricane season, now is the time to join me as I launch the Bob Breck Podcast, an audio & video supplement to my WVUE Facebook post.

For only $2/month, you can listen and/or watch what I think, how I feel, and telling you what you should or shouldn't be doing.  For 4 decades I didn't scare, but prepared you to weather the storm.. Go sign up today.  The subscriber price is $24/year or the cost of one Powerball ticket each month.  Give yourself peace of mind when the threats come during the next couple of weeks.  We'll tell you how to access my podcast later this week.  At the moment, the MDR is all quiet out in the Atlantic.

There remains a weak boundary from the Gulf over the Southeast with a cluster of storms drifting westward from the Bahamas.  So why all the fuss from NHC?   Computer models are now seeing 'something".  Look at these three, beginning with the new A.I. model on top, valid for Tuesday, August 19th, followed by the European.

Both models see something on the same date & time.  Locations are slightly different, but not by much.  But remember, that's TWO WEEKS OUT.  We all know how beyond 5-7 days, UNCERTAINTY increases dramatically.  How about the GFS?   OMG!!! It brings a strong storm off our coastline on August 18th.  So, what model do you believe?

None of the above as anything out that far is just guidance that activity might be increasing.  Just my thought here, look where NHC's hatched area is.

It indicates a recurve out to sea and no threat coming to the U.S. Confused?  Absolutely!  But that's why you have me to be the calm whether the storm comes or not.   The Gulf still looks to be a hostile environment for Tropical development, so the next possible threat should remain east of Florida.

That weak boundary along our coast has allowed some slightly drier air to filter in.  It's been a cool, ugly day across much of the Southeast.  Atlanta is in the 60s!

It was another day of below normal rain coverage with most storms along the coast on over to the Florida beaches.  Where it's raining, it's in the 70s.

The 7-day remains useless as it's August.  At least we're not under record heat like back in 2023.  Finally. Weather Bell Analytics not only issues the total number of named storms each April, but also highlights which locations are more vulnerable. SE LA/MS is on the western edge of greater risk.

I'll be here for you Gang, but you can have added comfort if you subscribe to my new Podcast.  You'll be alerted when a new podcast becomes available, which will be several times a day in a hurricane crisis.  At $2/month, it's a no-brainer.  Stay tuned!