Alright, 80 in January is a little too warm, as it almost always means daily fog issues. I've mentioned in previous posts that for us to get cold again, we have to have an upper pattern shift, which is coming for next week. But we still have another 2 days of near-record warmth. The pattern change will come in stages as a series of upper storms along the West coast head into the U.S., the first on over the SW will go to our north, keeping us warm Thursday and Friday. The second will dive towards the 4 corners before turning to the east.
You can clearly see the warm ridge over the southern states, but that's about to change as a strong cold front plows into the Southeast. It will trigger some severe weather, but this doesn't appear to be a major outbreak. Nicondra showed these graphics at noon.
SPC has placed much of our state in a level 2 (Slight) risk for severe storms late Friday into Saturday. All of SE LA/MS is in the level one risk, so we'll need to pay attention as we get to this weekend.
There are no fronts around us right now, but note how the dew points have risen into the 50s & 60s. There will be plenty of low-level moisture available for heavy rains ahead of the front. WPC indicates the bullseye on their 7-day rainfall totals.
The heaviest (4-6") will be well to our north. In the short term, dense fog is the main issue.
With water temps in the 50s & dew points in the 60s, daily fog is a given. Expect travel delays.
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We have 2 more spring-like days before the cool down comes in stages. No freeze is expected with this next cold blast. However...
IF you are a believer in models at 2 weeks (I'm not), the GFS is forming a Gulf low with cold air nearby. That might bring a southern snowstorm near us? Snow geeks, keep the faith. last years snow happened on Jan. 23rd. Stay tuned!
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