Southern Ice Storm, Snow Farther North, Freeze Here Monday & Tuesday

I haven't seen much change in model guidance over the south that changes what I posted yesterday.  As of Wednesday afternoon, everything points to an all-rain event here on both sides of Lake Pontchartrain with the slight chance for some sleet or flurries on the North Shore early Sunday as the frigid air filters in.  By the time it gets cold enough across the South Shore, all the moisture will be gone.  I like the FOX 8 graphics.

IF you have to travel north over the next several days, leave tomorrow.  By Friday, a band of heavy snow & freezing rain will shut down all interstates north of Shreveport to Jackson line. Here's the Euro model guidance with freezing rain on top, followed by heavy snow.

The model is forecasting a band of 1-2 feet of snow from Oklahoma City, north of Little Rock & Memphis, to Washington, D.C.  But it's the band of freezing rain that will be worse, knocking out power for thousands.

For all you snow geeks, I think we stay too warm for any frozen precipitation.  Could that change?  Sure, the cold air could dig farther southward, but will the moisture linger?  Right now, I don't think so except for a brief time across the North Shore. Here's the NWS forecast graphic

You can see what they're saying...DON'T DRIVE NORTH on Saturday or Sunday.  So then the next question is...how cold will we get?

Based on what I'm seeing, the Polar Vortex never digs down to the Gulf Coast, telling me the core of the Arctic Blast will be to our north & east.  It doesn't mean we won't freeze, but I don't see pipe-busting temps. except north of I-12 and east into MS/AL/FL.  Also, we still don't have a snow cover near us, but that will change.

 

The key cities to watch over the next several days will be Denver (51), Dallas (66), and San Antonio (71).  IF the Arctic air moves over these cities, then I'll be more concerned about a hard freeze.  This is an evolving situation, and I always preach UNCERTAINTY.  The bottom line is we pay attention when cold air comes, just as we do with tropical systems in the summer.

The FOX 8 7-day certainly is bullish regarding a hard freeze for Monday & Tuesday.  IF that proves to be reality, you still have time to protect your plants & property. 

There are many ways to cover your outside faucets.  Get that done if you haven't already.  As we get closer to the event, we'll decide if we need to drip the water.  For now, pay attention & don't travel north!  Stay tuned!