Parade Weather Timing Looks Great, Storms Overnight, Severe Threat?

 On my podcast Thursday evening, I downplayed the possible severe threat coming late tonight and explained why.  All day yesterday and again this morning, local weathercasters were pushing the severe weather coming for tonight.   The local NWS office & even SPC (Storm Prediction Center) indicates such a threat as they have most of Louisiana under a level 2 risk tonight.

However, I don't feel like the current set up will bring severe storms HERE.  The timing would be great for all parades as the rain comes over night. But let me explain the WHY of my thinking.  We have a well defined upper trough that will drag a cold front into an increasingly moist air mass coming out of the Gulf.  But note, the trough is "positively (leaning forward) tilted".

Unlike a negatively tilted trough, a positively tilted trough USUALLY doesn't have the huge split in the jet stream that enhances upward motion.  That shows up in the Water Vapor images.

There is a slight split in the upper flow (red line), but that is mainly to our north.  WPC (Weather Prediction Center) confirms where the heaviest rains should fall.

In addition, I just feel the lack of any real cold air behind the cold front is a signal that any severe storms will be limited HERE. Denver is 50 degrees at 1 PM.

Is the severe threat zero?  Of course not, but to keep crying wolf day after day only increase anxiety when I don't feel the threat is very high.  Here's the timing of the "squall line" based on this morning's model run from Hannah Gard.

I guess because I'm old (and more experienced!), I've seen time after time where the line of strong storms weakens as it approaches us.  It arrives at a time of zero heating making instability very limited.  Will we have gusty winds tonight & tomorrow?  Absolutely!  I'm taking my rain slicker to Endymion tonight just in a some stray showers develop.  But it appears the timing of the rain will NOT affect any of the parades tonight or Sunday.  Monday & Tuesday look great!

I will have my FOX 8 weather app ready in case any showers develop this evening.  Keep your phone by your bed over night in case any warnings are issued.  The greater risk will occur between 2-4 AM for most of us and we'll probably sleep through it all.  Remember to use sun screen for the day parades as 6-8 hours in the sun can give you quite a burn.  Stay safe, be happy and stay tuned!