Severe Weather Outbreak, NE Snow Storm, Winter Returns Here

While we are experiencing record-breaking warmth here, the battleground between Spring and Winter is creating all sorts of nasty weather.  Fortunately, the main upper energy is far to our north, and that is keeping the severe weather risk over the Midwest & Ohio Valley.  That is where the upper-level split in the jet stream is currently located. There is a level 3 risk for damaging storms up there.

A Tornado Watch is in effect as T-Storms erupt in the warm air sector.  It's a different story here, where we just have an early Spring preview that makes us feel more like early April.

We have 2 more days of flirting with records before it's back to the reality of typical February weather.  Here's why the change is coming.  Watch how the energy from the big storm over California shifts to the East Coast by Sunday & Monday. We begin with the current pattern.

Notice how the upper trough shifts to the East coast by Sunday, Monday & Tuesday.

What I see is the upper trough does NOT dig down over the Deep South, and that will/should keep the core of the cold to our north & east.  At this time, I am NOT planning on moving my plants back into my He-Shed as temperatures south of Lake P. should stay well above freezing.  I might change my mind IF it looks like Monday & Tuesday mornings give the South Shore chances for some frost.  North Shore should prepare for a light freeze at worst.

In the short term, we stay very warm, even overnight.  Note the Arctic air coming down out of Canada.  Right now, that should veer eastward and just brush us for 3 days.

A big warm-up follows the chill for Wednesday & Thursday.  A note of caution, if you plan to travel to the big cities of the Northeast, beware of travel delays, as a big snowstorm (1-2 feet) could cripple cities from D.C. To Boston.  Here, just keep the sweaters & coats handy for Sunday through Tuesday.  Stay tuned!