Daily Rain Chances Make 7 Day Useless, Easter Sunday looks Wet.

 Back when I was on-air, I often mentioned that once we got into May, the 7 day forecast became almost useless for planning your outdoor activities since 1) we knew each day would be warm to hot and 2) it would rain somewhere across our viewing area due to daytime heating pop up storms.  We're still in March and NWS indicates the upper air pattern shift will give us daily rain chances without any mentioned why,  which day has a better chance.  They just give each day equal chances and the FOX 8 seven day follows their guidance.

The higher rain chances Easter weekend will be due to an approaching cold front.  What I try to do is look for reasons why our rain chances have returned.  I do it by showing you satellite features and not just showing what the models say.  Saturday's cold front stalled off our coast and moved back northward during the morning hours. We're back in the muggies and a weak upper disturbances is passing well to our north.

But after weeks of dry weather, what has changed?  The persistent West Coast ridge and East coast upper trough gave us a mainly dry upper WNW flow.  Now we're going back to a West coast trough allowing our upper flow to turn more to the SW.

Embedded in that flow are weak disturbances that are difficult to forecast.  In addition, the moisture boundary that formed over us today becomes a forecast challenge all week.  Models say it stays in place, but what if it shifts just a little bit to our east tomorrow as the weak upper disturbance passes to our north?  Most of Louisiana is enjoying bright sunshine today.

 If I were still on-air for tomorrow, I would downplay the rain chances with higher chances Tuesday & Wednesday as the next weak upper disturbance comes from the West coast.  There are no fronts around to trigger more activity.

One thing for sure is temperatures will stay warm to hot depending on how much sunshine we get each day.  WPC's rainfall outlook has the heaviest rains far to our north, but they give us 2-3" during the next 7 days.  It's needed and welcomed by our lawns and gardens.

So will the rain chances be equal each day?  Watch your favorite weathercaster and see if they follow the NWS guidance, or maybe give you a reason why it might be different.  Bottom line, go find your umbrellas since it hasn't rain in many weeks.  Stay tuned!