Downplaying Sunday Severe Risk, Some Welcomed Rain Is Coming

As I mentioned yesterday, the risk for severe weather in SE LA/MS is very low as the upper energy with the current system coming out of the Rockies will stay well to our north.  In fact, the main energy now over Colorado will sink to the SW and head over the Baja for this weekend.  That keeps a SW flow over us, meaning any cold front will stall before reaching us. Models show that happening with the Kansas low racing towards the Great Lakes.

Watch what the GFS model does with the Colorado disturbance.  It takes it over the Baja for Saturday night.

The bottom is valid for next Wednesday, with the energy coming at a much lower latitude over us.  That to me means next Wednesday will have a way higher severe risk if the model is correct. Will we see some rain this weekend?  Sure looks likely late Saturday into early Sunday.  However, my feeling is that the strongest storms stay well north as the front weakens.  SPC's outlooks sure support that thinking. We begin with today's severe risk on top.

The bottom is valid for Saturday with the level one risk including SE LA/MS, but you can see the weakening trend.  They even mention that in their discussion.

The last line is most important...DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT towards the central Gulf Coast.  Every local station I watched is pushing this severe threat for Sunday.  I just don't see it and I explained why, which they don't do.  You can't cry wolf every time a cold front approaches.  I believe next Wednesday's front will bring a much higher severe risk.

We definitely are in a very juicy air mass that has warn air colliding with cold air

and dew points (low level moisture) surging 60+ into Illinois.  What's  missing here will be the upper energy and split in the jet stream.  WPC's heavy rainfall (2-4") outlook for Sat-Sunday keeps the heaviest well north of Lake P.  If we're lucky, like Mardi Gras, the main rainfall will happen after midnight Saturday and be gone shortly after daybreak on Sunday.

Some showers have popped up during daytime heating but should quickly end after sunset.

Again, I believe the severe threat for late Saturday into Sunday is very small compared to the greater severe risk coming next Wednesday.  Finally, don't forget...

Before you go to sleep Saturday night, move your clock forward (Spring Forward) as the time change happens at 2 AM on Sunday,   Stay tuned!