Higher Severe Risk Coming Wednesday PM, Cooler Thursday

In a previous post, I complained about our local weathercasters over hyping the last severe weather threat (nothing happened!) and crying wolf every time a cold front moves through.  I explained why we were unlikely to see any storms with the heaviest rainfall mainly north of Lake P.   That was the last system, but we have another on coming that will bring a much higher risk to south LA/MS Wednesday PM.  As usual, I give you MY opinion.  We begin with the current satellite view.

We still have the upper SW flow coming out of Mexico into Texas on up to the Ohio Valley.  However, unlike last week that had all the upper energy staying well north of us, look what the GFS model is doing with the disturbance coming across the Baja today. The top graphic is today.

The middle view is valid for Wednesday PM with the upper disturbance moving over central Texas and weakening.  The bottom is valid for Thursday PM with the upper trough lifting out to the northeast.  While I don't see a perfect set up for a tornado outbreak, I see the upper energy moving much closer to us.  Here's SPC's thinking. On top is the severe outlook for Tuesday with two areas of level 3 risk.

The bottom shows Wednesday's risk, which I believe is underplayed based on the upper energy  that's coming across at a much lower latitude.  Don't be surprised to see a level 3 area added to Wednesday's outlook.  In fact, I will do a special Podcast explaining why we will have a higher severe risk, but you have to subscribe to the podcast for $2/month at bobbreck.com.  Today's storms are all to our north with a weak upper disturbance.

SPC has a severe T-Storm Watch area including parts of NE LA and much of central & north MS.  These storms are NOT coming our way.

The reason today's severe risk is not great is it lacks a surface cold front.  There's plenty of low level moisture available, but no surface boundary to enhance lift. Nicondra gave us an idea about timing on her noon program.

It appears the greatest danger will come after dark if the model proves reality.  We will watch future model runs, but be prepared for some strong storms Wednesday PM into early Thursday. 

There will be a noticeable cooling coming for Thursday that will bring back sweaters and jackets.  But look at what the model does for next Monday.

That sharp a dip in the upper trough over the East coast would bring down a really cold air mass.  Winter is not over Gang!  Finally, look at these two cool satellite views of Florida.

You can clearly see the sea breeze front on both sides of the peninsula.  Also, notice the sea fog. This is for all you weather geeks who look for the small features.  Remember, next podcast is coming soon before the next severe weather threat.  Stay tuned!