The current upper air pattern has a trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the Southeast. This is bringing colder air to the western states with much-needed snow over the Rockies, while the southern states remain way above normal/average for early March.
The first area of energy over Idaho will move across the northern Plains, well north of us. It will drag a cold front into a very moist air mass, creating the potential for some severe storms. SPC highlights the greatest danger areas for Friday and weakens those storms for Saturday.
My gut tells me the upper energy stays far north and that should lessen any severe risk here. In addition, the cold frontal boundary will stall out, keeping the heaviest rains from east Texas across north Louisiana into Mississippi & Tennessee.
The orange colors indicate as much as 5-7" of rain may fall over the next 7 days. As you can see, south of Lake Pontchartrain, amounts are 1-2" at most.
I am downplaying the threat for severe storms here as we do not have a huge temperature contrast behind the front, plus the upper energy remains way north.
We have seen some showers around today, but they were brief and lasted only a few minutes. More of the same is likely for the next several days.
Most of the showers south of the Lake will quickly end this evening once the sun goes down. The sun will be going down later next week as the time change (Spring ahead) arrives Sunday morning.
No signs of any cold air coming for the next 7-10 days. Finally...
These pictures were taken on Monday, coming in from a day of fishing with Captain Hylton and his brother Steve. I turned the phone around to capture the moonrise.
It got better as we got back to his camp. Fishing wasn't great (17 trout), but the scenery was terrific. Even saw 2 gators waking up from a long winter. And what the heck are those 2 globs down in the Gulf?
Thank goodness it's only March! I doubt any local weathercaster even mentions them. Stay tuned!
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